Perpetual Innovation

Author: SustainMe

  • Renewable Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is Extended Two Years

     

    Good news, as of January 2021 the ITC has been extended at 26% for 2021 and 2022. See Solar Energy Industry Association (SEIA) discussion on the investment tax credit (ITC) here: Solar ITC Rate Per Year. 

    This means that the calculator we developed for residential and for business solar investments will still be accurate for the next two years. (See our Solar Profit Calculator page.)

    Woo Hoo! Happy Days!:-)

    During that time Biden administration should start to remove the fossil fuel subsidies, meaning that renewables should continue to take share from coal, oil and gas. There’s two other things that Biden will likely do: extend renewable incentives; and, institute a cost structure for carbon. Only the renewed incentives was likely before the US Senate went 50+1 for the Democrats. Something like a gas tax increase or a cap-and-trade program was highly unlikely just a month ago.

  • Sustainability and the Future of Self-Driving Cars and EVs

    IntellZine
    just wrote an article on how to     Invest in the Future of Self-Driving Cars
    and EVs (    https://www.intellzine.com/2020/12/invest-in-future-of-self-driving-cars.html).


    What’s not really covered is the
    Sustainability of EVs, self-driving cars etc. Internal combustion engines predominantly
    use fossil fuels but they can use renewable ethanol or biodiesel. Electric cars
    have the most promise because it is much easier to produce electricity from
    renewable sources like hydro, wind and solar. Plus, wind and solar have become
    the best and cheapest source of stationary electricity, even considering the impact
    of batteries.

    But one mobile power method that is
    not considered as much is hydrogen. In terms of stationary electricity, fuel
    cells can be used for emergency backup power (nearly instant on) and/or for
    continuous power. Although there are lots of ways to make hydrogen, all you
    really need is energy and water. (How to get hydrogen from Energy.Gov.)
    Currently, the most common method, by far is from NatGas or Ammonia.

    Fuel cell has interesting solutions
    to the battery problems, especially for range extension. Plus, hydrogen filling
    stations are being added along major routes, but nothing like electric charging and NatGas (see chart here). As the IntellZine article
    discussed, some of the fuel cell companies have gone up wildly over the last 6
    months, especially Plug. Plug (PLUG) built its business on fuel cell forklifts;
    a super clean and very efficient approach. Investors might be looking at the
    future markets for fuel cell and pricing for it. Or, they might simply be
    wrong.

  • On the VERGE of Sustainability

     VERGE 20 is on this week (starting October 26 2020). GreenBiz sponsor and coordinate this massive event. Anybody and any company that’s got anything to do with sustainability is here. Well, not exactly here since it is virtual this year… But you get the idea.

    Opening session was a wonderful start of the week. Even the singing was impressive. Really!  I said, “Oh, NO!”, when Shana Rappaport started in with a variation of Girl on Fire (Alycia Keyes). Hard song. Not exactly what you are used to at formal conferences. Turned out to be very, very cool. It also kind of elevated the urgency that many of us feel about dragging our feet in the (oil) sands on climate action: This World is on Fire! It also seemed apropos giving the historic fire year (in California, Colorado, etc.)

    VERGE is the ultimate sustainability forum each year with all the leading thought leaders and all the leading companies. Energy, food, transportation, circular economy and more. Great ideas for companies to save money and reduce carbon at the same time (like efficiencies, telework, and more). Many sponsor companies are enabling other organizations to move quickly toward (more) sustainability.

    We are looking for companies that aiming for negative carbon footprints (like Microsoft’s plan to remove all carbon-equivalent of the company’s lifetime of business). This would be moving to carbon neutral (renewable energy and such) and then offering to offset all the emissions from my family, my parents and my grandparents.

    One of the silver linings of the COVID pandemic was the clean air and restored nature in a few weeks human hibernation from industry. Even with the economy slowed down to, maybe 75% capacity (more like 50% in the US), the estimated carbon reduction was only about 8%. So, the argument is that the equivalent of the worst pain of the pandemic (hopefully without the pandemic and without most of the pain) is what we need to accomplish essentially every year for years.

    Just to be clear about the 8% reduction per year that we’re talking about: that’s a reduction in the increase. That’s not reducing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere, it is simply slowing down the massive rate that we are adding to it.

    Keynote sessions are free, so the price is right. Plus, you save on the hotel and flight!

    https://events.greenbiz.com/events/verge-conference/online/2020


  • Solar Prices Dropped off a Cliff and Into the Ocean

    Here’s a great article in Clean Technica by   on the falling prices of solar (PV). The cost per watt is the key measure to follow. Basically a rule of thumb is that $3 per Watt installed should be profitable, before any tax credit considerations. In 2006 the cost was $3.50 per watt for the panels. Now prices have dropped below $0.50 and would be lower if there wasn’t a trade tiff going on with China.  Even with $1 to $2 per watt installed, the prices are getting to be crazy low. The Investment Tax Credit dropped to 26% percent in 2020 and will drop to 22% in 2021, but the installed costs after tax benefits should be less than $2 per watt. That’s a crazy profitable investment, especially for businesses. (See our discussion and  Solar Calculator on the residential and business PV investments.)

    We’ve been wrong several times in the last couple years. We’ve said that the real breakthrough in the home solar system will be the battery technology. Well, that is true. But we have underestimated the cost curve drop with PV. True, it is not breakthrough technologies, it is learning curve of production and economies of scale.

    When we talk about the drop of costs in PV we still think that the amount of power that can be squeezed out of a square inch of solar exposed roof is probably not going to significantly improve for several years. Don’t delay your solar investment decision for a breakthrough.

    At this point our assessment of batteries is that the technology and the prices are converging to make batteries a better investment. Depending on your need to be always powered, batteries are probably worth waiting. Probably 3 to 5 years. Maybe design the system with batteries in mind. Maybe design the system for expansion. Expect that you will charge your electric vehicles, for example. If you have extra roof space, expect that you will power your neighbors house.

    Just a reminder, not all photovoltaic (PV) is created equal. Check the warranties and the depletion rates of your panels. 

    #Solar #RE #RenewableEnergy #RE100 #SolarInvestCalc

    SolarInvest2020 Profit Calc

  • Mysteries of Methane Leak in Florida and Not-So-Clean Fossil Fuels

    There’s a BIG NatGas leak (Methane) in Florida. The source of
    which is not being owned up to. There’s no oil/gas drilling in the area.
    And, until about a year ago, most such leaks might go totally unnoticed. Read
    the Bloomberg article No
    One is Owning Up to Releasing Cloud of Methane in Florida    .
    Oil Flaring at Night in North America (Bakken)
    First Methane. The largest component of natural gas (NatGas) is methane (EIA).
    Various oil formations of fossil fuels are oil, mostly gas, or a combination.
    Even in coal formations there is methane, which has made coal mining especially
    dangerous for explosions and fires.
    When you see the flame stacks burning above oil wells and
    refineries, this is natural gas being flared off. Flaring is far preferred then
    just releasing it, venting, because methane is a wicked greenhouse gas (GHG) at
    82 times the global warming capacity as CO2 in the first 20 years (about 30
    times as potent over 100 years).
    Estimates by industry experts are that as much methane is
    flared (and vented) as used in the USA. If the US consumes about 22% of the
    world’s natural gas (0.8 trillion cubic meters per year of 3.9Tm3 worldwide)
    then it flares/vents the same amount again. The US accounts for twice as much
    NatGas consumption as the entire EU (or Russia). Texas and North Dakota (Permian
    & Bakken) account for 10 to 20 times as much flaring as any other state (Se
    EIA
    2019 report on flaring    ).
    NatGas is Cleaner than… Because of an abundance of NatGas in the US, and it burns massively cleaner than coal in terms of pollutants (air and ash), the US has made a major shift to NatGas for power generation. NatGas has taken the place of coal in many power plants to represent 38.4% of the the US electrical power generation while the other categories are almost on parity with coal (23.5%), nuclear (19.7%) and renewables (17.9%).  NatGas was believed to have only half the greenhouse gas impact as coal as well. But, when all things are considered, this big advantage of NatGas has evaporated into thin air (vented and flared)!. And methane has soared to all time highs, even during the pandemic slowdown. More people, and more people eating higher on the food chain (cows) is a massive methane producer as well. Now the arctic heat wave(s) are starting to thaw permafrost where huge amounts of methane are sequestered. Ouch! 
    Here’s a great visualization from NASA related to sources of methane and other greenhouse gasses. 
    Value
    of NatGas    ? You ask the wise questions, “Isn’t NatGas valuable? Why would
    any sane person or company, flare it into thin air?” First answer is, No.
    NatGas is not valuable unless you can transport it easily to where it could be processes
    (remove impurities) and consumed. For NatGas, a gas pipeline is pretty much the
    only option. Once NatGas reaches a refinery it can be processed into a liquid form (LNG) and even into gasoline or diesel.  Oil is easier to transport via oil tankers (truck or train or
    barge) or via pipelines. So, in the cases of wet gas, the oil (and other
    particulates) can be pumped and profitably sold if the gas can be flared away. In
    this case, NatGas is a byproduct of oil production. In many cases it cost more
    to try to distribute and process the NatGas then the market value once it
    reaches a distribution center and can be sold.
    The government, Federal and/or State,  could and should regulate flaring. In Texas, the
    railroad authority regulates flaring, and they have never refused a flaring request, even
    when a pipeline is readily available. In Russia and Nigeria, 95% of all NatGas
    has to be recovered, not flared. But the influence (and corruption) in the
    extractive industries results in a free pass for friends and family, and only selective enforcement.
    From space, you can now get beautiful nighttime pictures of
    flaring around the world. Check out
    Geology.com    . Wow! But couldn’t a company can simply vent the methane and,
    although far worse in every way, it might go undetected? Actually, not so much
    any more. Newer satellite imagery can detect the methane in the atmosphere and
    methane plumes from natural (swamps) and unnatural sources. This brings us back
    to Florida.
    Bluefield
    Technologies Inc.     analyzes data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P satellite. See image showing more than 300 metric tons of methane released near Gainesville and spreading through Jacksonville area. 
    There are only a couple possibly leak sources of such a massive amount of methane (or NatGas). No one has owned up to it. No one seems to be busy trying to find the source. This might be a common practice for pipelines or power plants? Even if there are no fines, it would be good to know. Don’t ya know?
    #CleanEnergy #NatGas #Flaring #Fracking #Methane