Scenario Planning and Delphi Research

Explore scenario planning, Delphi Method research, backcasting, and foresight tools for strategic planning and policy. Leveraging the genius of experts and crowds.

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    The Refractive Thinker® Vol. XXVI: Dynamics of Power in a Human + AI World

    ByElmer Hall

    By Dr. Elmer B. Hall Today, Dec. 10, 2025, we release of The Refractive Thinker® Vol. XXVI: Dynamics of Power—Unveiling the Social Forces That Shape Us at a launch promo price of $1.99. This edition marks another milestone in the award-winning series founded and led by Dr. Cheryl Lentz, the Chief Refractive Thinker®. This volume examines how power—structural, cultural, digital, interpersonal, generational, and ethical—shapes the world we live in and the systems we lead. Each…

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    COP30 in the Amazon: A Pivotal Moment to Close the Climate Ambition Gap Amidst Global Uncertainty

    ByElmer Hall

    — Article 1 of 2: The COP30 Essentials & The Ambition Gap — The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30), currently underway in the Brazilian Amazon, represents a critical juncture in the global climate fight. Hosted by a nation intrinsically linked to the planet’s most vital carbon sink, the summit has been framed as the “Nature COP” and carries an immense symbolic weight for the future of multilateral climate governance. As nations gather to finalize…

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    Intergenerational Betrayal: Why Short-Termism Fails the Future on Climate

    ByElmer Hall

    — Article 2 of 2: The Intergenerational Betrayal — With COP30 now concluded in BelĂ©m, the global consensus on climate action faces a moment of reckoning. The final outcome—while preserving multilateral cooperation—fell short of transformational commitments, most notably by omitting any agreement to phase out fossil fuels. As Article 1 established, collective efforts remain aligned with a dangerous 2.3 to 2.8 degrees Celsius trajectory (AP News, 2025; UN, 2023), widening the distance between scientific necessity…

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    Rotary 2055 using SmartGenAI: The Future of Service Clubs

    ByElmer Hall

    A foresight and SmartGenAI approach to Rotary 2055 planning. Rotary faces an uneven future. In the United States and parts of Western Europe, membership has been declining by about 2% annually, while Rotary continues to grow globally, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These different trajectories raise an important question: What will Rotary look like in 2055—and how can clubs prepare today? A new white paper by Elmer Hall of Strategic Business Planning Company…

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    Elias’s Future Farm: Building a Sustainable Legacy for 100 Years and Beyond

    BySustainMe

    From Choices to Legacy: the Future Sustainable Farm Elias, the Ohio farmer we met in recent scenario planning case studies, faces choices that mirror the world’s energy dilemmas: drilling for oil and gas, planting corn for ethanol, building solar and wind farms, or adopting regenerative agriculture. Each path offers rewards and risks, but as Elias looks beyond contracts and crop cycles, his thinking shifts to the future sustainable farm and a carbon-negative future. He is…

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    The Farmer’s Choice: Shell-Inspired Scenarios for a Carbon-Negative Future (1/2)

    BySustainMe

    The Farmer’s Dilemma Elias, a farmer in eastern Ohio, stands at the edge of his fields with competing futures before him. Is there a carbon-negative future ahead? His corn stretches toward the horizon, but beneath the soil lie the Utica and Marcellus Shale formations, some of the richest fossil reserves in North America. He could lease to an oil company tomorrow and receive an upfront check larger than any harvest he has ever sold. Yet…