Delphi & Scenario Planning… Taking a closer looks at the future.
This site is devoted to Scenario Planning and looking forward types of analysis. Delphi Method/Technique is a great tool for this.
Similar Posts
Salt and Battery, When does Storage make Fossil Fuel Obsolete
ByDel Phi
Last week the world’s biggest Electric Vehicle (EV) battery company made a big opening splash on its IPO. CATL is a Chinese company that IPOed with a massive 44% pop on open. The company offered up only 10% of the shares in the IPO, valuing the company at more than $12B. China has limits on how much a company can IPO at (price based on PE ratio) and a 44% limit on the amount an…
Making sure the IRS Preparers are Prepared… Backcasting & Learning Theory
ByDel Phi
Dr Dave Schrader recently (December 2016) completed a very cool dissertation pertaining to the IRS and their (in)ability to assess tax preparers’ competency, and their (in)ability to test the preparers’ preparedness. {Sure, that’s easy for you to say!} Over that last few years, the IRS has been charged with determining Tax Preparers’ competency. (Not the CPAs, mind you, but the millions of — shall we say — undocumented tax preparers.) The problem was that the…
Consensus: Let’s agree to look for agreement, not consensus
ByDel Phi
Most of the hunters (academic researchers) searching for consensus in their Delphi research, are new to the sport. They believe that they must bag really big game or come home empty handed. But we don’t agree. In fact, once you have had a chance to experience Delphi hunting once or twice, your perception of the game changes. Consensus is a BIG dilemma within Delphi research. However, it is generally an unnecessary consumer of time and…
Consensus too, outcomes and consensus
ByDel Phi
Consensus continues to be a big issue is designing a Delphi Study. It is more than a little helpful to figure out how the results will be presented and how consensus will be determined. Even if consensus is not really necessary, any and all Delphi studies will be looking for the level of agreement as a critical aspect of the research. Look at our prior blog article Consensus: Let’s agree to look for agreement, not…
COVID in the US
ByDel Phi
We talked about how scenario planning would and should have help see this pandemic, and have early warning signs for continuing plans.
Scenarios that Jump Out At You
ByDel Phi
There are several scenarios that jump out at you. Hall and Knab (2012) outlined 11 or so items that were non-sustainable trends/practices that appeared to have compounding and accelerating forces. Those items get worse in a wicked bad way when they go unattended. Therefore, they are wonderful areas to generate scenarios. Here’s a few: US Debt deficit, US Trade deficit, the interest rate bomb, Life-style bomb, the compounding healthcare costs escalation bomb, the fossil fuel…
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