The Farmer’s Choice: Shell-Inspired Scenarios for a Carbon-Negative Future (1/2)

The Farmer’s Dilemma

Elias, a farmer in eastern Ohio, stands at the edge of his fields with competing futures before him. Is there a carbon-negative future ahead? His corn stretches toward the horizon, but beneath the soil lie the Utica and Marcellus Shale formations, some of the richest fossil reserves in North America. He could lease to an oil company tomorrow and receive an upfront check larger than any harvest he has ever sold. Yet another path beckons overhead — steady winds, open skies, and sunshine strong enough to power a community. And still another lies under his boots: the living soil, which, if managed regeneratively, could sequester carbon and earn credits in emerging carbon markets.

Elias’s decision is a microcosm of today’s global challenge. It is not just about planting crops or signing a lease; it is about how societies everywhere will balance food, energy, and carbon in the years ahead. His farm illustrates that the carbon-negative future is not only a global policy question — it begins with choices at the ground level.

(See Part 2 of 2: From Farm to Future: Four Scenarios for a Carbon-Negative World (2/2) )

Learning from Shell

For decades, Shell has practiced scenario planning not to predict the future, but to prepare for multiple plausible ones. They asked: What if? What if cooperation between nations breaks down? What if technology advances faster than expected? By running these mental rehearsals, Shell avoided being blindsided by uncertainty.

That same foresight lens can be applied here. By adapting the Shell approach to Elias’s farm, we turn abstract uncertainties into tangible, land-based choices. His fields become a classroom for understanding how individuals and organizations alike can use scenarios to think long term.

The Three Energy Plays

The Corn Play
Elias could continue farming corn, contracting with an ethanol plant. Corn ethanol is a renewable fuel, but its sustainability is debated. Producing it requires diesel, fertilizer, and water, and critics argue it diverts food into fuel. Prices are volatile, tied as much to energy policy as to yield.

The Fracking Play
Leasing to an oil and gas company offers immediate security. Signing the lease could bring Elias and his family multi-generational wealth, with royalties flowing for decades. But it would also tie the farm’s future to a fossil-heavy energy path at a time when society is under pressure to reduce emissions. This choice locks in risks not only for the environment but for Elias’s community if markets eventually penalize high-carbon sources.

The Renewable Play
Alternatively, Elias could dedicate acreage to solar panels or a small wind farm. These projects provide stable but often smaller returns compared to oil leases. Their advantage is resilience: revenue grows as energy markets shift toward decarbonization. In a world where carbon carries a price, renewables represent a hedge against fossil volatility.

Two Core Uncertainties

At the heart of this case are two uncertainties that matter not just for Elias but for all of us.

The first is the value of carbon. If governments or markets impose a high cost on carbon emissions, the renewable and regenerative options grow far more attractive. If carbon remains cheap, oil and gas stay dominant.

The second is the level of global cooperation. Will nations compete fiercely for advantage, each pursuing energy independence, or will they collaborate on climate agreements, trade carbon credits, and accelerate the clean energy transition together? Cooperation or competition will determine how fast technologies scale, how markets stabilize, and whether small farmers like Elias can participate in global carbon solutions.

Together, these axes create a map of plausible futures. In Part 2, we will place Elias’s choices onto a 2×2 scenario matrix to explore how these uncertainties shape four distinct pathways.

Why It Matters

This is not just an academic exercise. Scenario planning provides a practical tool for anyone facing uncertainty. Whether you are a farmer, a nonprofit leader, or a policymaker, the logic is the same: define the key uncertainties, map the plausible futures, and prepare strategies that work under more than one outcome. That flexibility is what builds resilience.

Real-Time Foresight Using Scenario Planning

The approach described here is drawn from my new book, Real-Time Foresight: Scenario Planning and Delphi Method with rdAI. By combining proven foresight methods with regenerative AI, leaders can move beyond static forecasts and instead develop living strategies that adapt as the future unfolds. From Elias’s farm to corporate boardrooms, scenario planning provides clarity amid uncertainty and strengthens long-term decision-making.

👉 Explore the book and resources here

Looking Ahead

Elias’s choice is real enough for many farmers today, and it reflects global crossroads we all face. In the next post, we will use a 2×2 matrix to explore the four scenarios that emerge — from the Stagnant Farm locked into fossil fuels to the Regenerative Farm leading the way toward a carbon-negative future.

🌱 Suggested GenAI Follow-on Prompts

1. “Identify two major uncertainties that could impact the future of farming in your region, and outline how they might create different scenarios.”
2. “Compare the risks and rewards of investing in renewable energy vs. conventional farming from a 20-year perspective.”
3. “Draft a short narrative describing how a small farm could adapt if carbon prices suddenly doubled.”

Attribution: This article was drafted with assistance from Gemini 2.5 Flash and redeveloped with ChatGPT-5. The feature image of the farmer was generated with Gemini. Prep, prompts, review, and polish by Hall (2025, Aug.).