Federal Debt

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    The Fiscal Scissors Revisited: AI Productivity, Deflation, and U.S. Debt Dynamics

    ByElmer Hall

    Why rising productivity may ease interest rates—but complicate long-term fiscal sustainability Fiscal Scissors dynamics are evolving as AI-driven productivity reshapes the relationship between inflation, interest rates, and economic growth. What once appeared to be a straightforward tension between rising debt and higher borrowing costs is now a more complex system in which productivity gains simultaneously…

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    The Fiscal Scissors: Structural Pressure Points in the U.S. Economy

    ByElmer Hall

    The United States faces what we describe as a “Fiscal Scissors” dynamic — a widening structural gap between the growth rate of federal U.S. debt 2026 and the growth rate of the productive economy. This divergence does not emerge from a single fiscal year anomaly; it reflects a compounding trajectory that shapes long-term policy constraints….

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    Unsustainability as the Engine of Sustainability and Scenario Planning

    ByPiAdmin

    Sustainability and scenario planning Synergy. Sustainability and scenario planning may seem like two separate domains—one focused on resource stewardship and long-term resilience, the other on mapping uncertainties and preparing for multiple futures. Yet they are deeply intertwined. Anything that is not sustainable will eventually fail, and in that failure lies the seed of future scenarios….