Perpetual Innovation

Category: blockchain

  • The World is Halving!

     The world is halving,
    the World is HALVING.
    …
    Q: Bitcoin is due to “half”. Explain what half means and how that might impact the price of bitcoin before and after? and … Q: Which bitcoin miners will be most impacted by the halving event this week? (See Answer below.) 

    ChatGPT or MS Copilot or Gemini …. nice answers… (See below)

    Summary of answer: Since inception in 2009, bitcoin has been designed to pay-out half the number of coins per block awarded to “miners”. It started at 50 coins per block. About every 4 years (210,000 blocks) the number of coins payout has halved. It is now down to 6.25 coins per block. Some time over the next day or so, the amount payout will halve again to 3.125.

    Miners use massive computing power to mine bitcoin, and gigantic amounts of power. Much of the power used is for cooling in order for the server farm to stay cool within operating ranges.
    If the price of bitcoin, up to $70,000 last week, doubles, then a miner can still make money… if not, marginal miners will drop off.
    Since the computing power might be used for multiple purposes, say gaming or AI, some miners might be diversified.

     Copilot (2024, April 18)

    Certainly! Let’s delve into the concept of Bitcoin halving and its potential impact on the price of Bitcoin:

    1. What Is Bitcoin Halving?

      • Bitcoin halving, also known as the halvening, is a programmed event that occurs approximately every four years within the Bitcoin network.
      • It is a built-in feature of Bitcoin’s code.
      • During halving, the block reward for miners is reduced by half.
      • In other words, the number of new Bitcoins created with each mined block decreases.

    2. Why Does Halving Happen?

      • The primary goal of halving is to control the rate of Bitcoin issuance.
      • Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins.
      • By reducing the reward for miners, halving slows down the creation of new Bitcoins.
      • This scarcity mechanism is crucial for maintaining Bitcoin’s value proposition.

    3. Impact on Bitcoin Price:

      • Historically, Bitcoin halving events have had a significant impact on the price:
        • Scarcity Effect: Halving reduces the rate at which new Bitcoins enter the market. As supply decreases, scarcity increases.
        • Increased Demand: If demand remains steady or rises, the reduced supply can lead to higher prices.
        • Anticipation: Traders and investors anticipate halving events, which can drive up demand and price before the actual halving occurs.

    4. Previous Halvings:

      • 2012: The first halving reduced the block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.
        • Result: Bitcoin’s price surged from around $12 to over $1,000 within a year.
      • 2016: The second halving reduced the reward to 12.5 BTC per block.
        • Result: Bitcoin’s price increased significantly, reaching an all-time high.

    5. 2020 and 2024 Halvings:

      • The most recent halving occurred in 2020, reducing the reward to 6.25 BTC per block.
      • The upcoming halving is expected in 2024.
      • Different Context: Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin has already hit new record highs before the 2024 halving.
        • Factors include institutional interest, regulatory developments, and broader adoption.

    6. Market Sentiment:

      • Opinions vary:
        • Some experts predict a bullish trend due to scarcity and increased institutional participation.
        • Others believe that the halving effect is already priced in, and external factors play a more significant role.

    In summary, Bitcoin halving reduces supply, increases scarcity, and historically correlates with price surges. However, the current market context and external factors may influence the outcome. 🌟🪙📈

    You:

    Which bitcoin miners will be most impacted by the halving event this week?

    1. Miners’ Revenue Decrease:

      • The halving will reduce the block subsidy for miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
      • Miners’ immediate impact will be a considerable decrease in revenue due to the reduced reward.

    2. Hashrate and Miner Viability:

      • Less efficient miners may become unprofitable and exit the network.
      • The hashrate, a critical security measure for Bitcoin, might adjust along with difficulty levels to align with new economic realities.

    3. ASIC Pricing and Breakeven Points:

      • Post-halving, the profitability of different ASIC models will be crucial.
      • Only the most efficient machines will operate profitably if Bitcoin’s price does not see a significant increase.
      • Next-generation ASICs like the S19 XP and M30S++ might have breakeven power costs ranging from $0.07/kWh to $0.15/kWh.

    4. Custom ASIC Firmware:

      • Miners are turning to custom ASIC firmware (e.g., LuxOS, BraiinsOS) to improve hardware efficiency.
      • Custom firmware optimizes power usage and hashrate output, lowering the breakeven point for electricity costs.

    5. Miners at Risk:

    In summary, miners’ profitability and viability will depend on their efficiency, ASIC models, and adaptation to the new economic landscape after the halving. 🌟🪙⛏️

     

    Q: How does bitcoin and bitcoin mining fit into the world of blockchain?
    Sent by you: How does bitcoin and bitcoin mining fit into the world of blockchain?

    Gemini (2024, April 18) 

    Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining are foundational pieces of the blockchain world. Here’s how they connect:

    Blockchain: The Public Ledger

    Imagine a giant, public record of transactions. That’s essentially what a blockchain is. It uses cryptography to securely store information in a way that’s transparent and resistant to tampering. Transactions are grouped into blocks, chained together chronologically, creating a tamper-proof record.

    Bitcoin: The First Cryptocurrency

    Bitcoin was the first widely adopted cryptocurrency, and it runs on a specific blockchain. Each Bitcoin transaction is recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain. This blockchain relies on miners to validate and secure the network.

    Bitcoin Mining: Securing the Network

    Bitcoin mining is the process of verifying and adding transactions to the Bitcoin blockchain. Miners compete to solve complex math problems. The first miner to solve the problem gets to add the next block of transactions to the chain and receives a reward in Bitcoin.

    Here’s how they work together:

    • Security: Mining creates a secure and decentralized network. Miners constantly verify transactions, making it nearly impossible to tamper with the blockchain.
    • Decentralization: There’s no central authority controlling Bitcoin. Anyone can participate in mining, which distributes the power across the network.
    • Scarcity: Mining also controls the creation of new Bitcoins. The halving event, where the mining reward gets cut in half, creates a limited supply of Bitcoins, similar to precious metals.

    Impact on Blockchain Technology

    Bitcoin’s success has popularized blockchain technology. The core principles of blockchain security and decentralization are now being applied in various fields beyond cryptocurrency, such as supply chain management, voting systems, and secure document sharing.

    In essence:

    • Blockchain provides the secure and transparent infrastructure.
    • Bitcoin, secured by mining, is the first application running on this infrastructure.
    • The success of Bitcoin has driven innovation and exploration of blockchain technology across various industries.

  • Disruptive Innovation: Why AI Will Spark Exponential Economic Growth

     The innovation and investment guru
    Cathy Wood gave a TED talk in December 2023 about 5 pivotal innovation platforms
    that will (continue) to change the world as we know it. Her group expects to
    see exponential sustained growth that is fueled by the productivity gains in
    these areas, especially where they converge. The 5 platforms (AI, Robotics,
    Energy Storage, DNA sequencing, and blockchain) are described below, with AI in
    the center. One example she uses is the rapid move to self-driving taxis.     TED talk with Cathy Wood, Why AI Will Spark Exponential
    Economic Growth    . (2023, Dec. 18). 

    The productivity gains are so huge and
    so sustained that it will dramatically change the global economy with sustained
    GDP growth of 6% to 8%. Productivity gains can be distributed (at the macro
    level) in three ways: higher wages, higher profits, and deflation. She expects
    all 3. Note disinflation, is the slowing rate of inflation while deflation
    is negative growth in prices. This means that more goods and more services can
    be produced more cheaply. Usually we think of lowering prices – deflation –
    coming as a result of a good recession, i.e., destructive innovation.

    This new AI economy will create a
    whole new type of disruptive innovation. Disruption to the workforce will be
    massive: taxi drivers, truck drivers, coders, factory workers, designers. The
    US that has been stuck at full employment (less than 4% unemployed) will
    suddenly get some relief. The people who develop the new skills will have very
    high-paying jobs, others will be left out.

    Wood argues that the Federal Reserve,
    that has been so worried about inflation for so long, is way behind the curve, because
    productivity and sustained economic growth are already here. The Fed’s new job,
    soon, will be managing the drop in interest rates and deflation.

    The old nautical adage: a rising tide
    raises all boats. A rapidly growing world economy will raise most boats: some
    boats a lot, some a lot faster than others.

    You: Summarize the 5
    technologies that Cathy Wood believes will converge to produce exponential
    economic growth.

    Copilot (2024, April 4)

    Investor Cathie
    Wood     envisions a unique moment in technology marked by the
    simultaneous evolution of five pivotal innovation platforms. These
    platforms are converging, creating unprecedented opportunities for growth and
    transformation. Here are the five technologies she highlights:

    1. Artificial Intelligence (AI):
      • AI is
        reshaping economic paradigms.
      • Predicts a
        surge in global GDP growth and productivity.
      • Drives
        exponential productivity growth.
    2. Robotics:
      • Robotics
        advancements are accelerating.
      • Automation and
        efficiency gains across industries.
    3. Energy Storage:
      • Energy storage
        solutions are evolving rapidly.
      • Enables
        renewable energy adoption and grid stability.
    4. DNA Sequencing (Multiomic Sequencing):
      • Advances in
        DNA sequencing technology.
      • Revolutionizes
        healthcare, personalized medicine, and biotechnology.
    5. Blockchain Technology:
      • Blockchain’s
        decentralized ledger system.
      • Disrupts
        finance, supply chains, and data security.

    Wood emphasizes the need for businesses and investors
    to adapt to this convergence to stay ahead in the changing landscape. These
    technologies hold immense potential for exponential economic growth!     🚀🌐💡

    #Innovation #DisruptiveInnovation #AI
    #ArtificialIntellegence #Blockchain #Robotics #GenAI

    Wood, C. (2023, Dec. 18). Why AI Will Spark Exponential
    Economic Growth. TED Talks. Retrieved from: https://youtu.be/rQEh7d-qa38?feature=shared

  • PetroCoins, Oil Sands Extraction and Blockchain.

    Oil sands are seriously back in play with patented technology. Combine that with blockchain tech, and you have an investment that you simply gotta get into, or not!…
    Petrotech Energy Inc. is touting both patents and blockchain in a penny, over-the-counter, stock (PQEFF).
    Well, maybe not investing, but here is a hyped-up “sponsored” Ad that looks slightly like an article over at OilPrice.com: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/This-New-Technology-Could-Transform-The-Oil-Industry1.html
    Two things that are interesting in the penny stock that’s now up to $1.50 level. It has patented tech on oil sands extraction that is a closed loop system that sounds interesting. With the dry sands of Utah it apparently has the ability to extract 99% of the heavy oil and leaves only sand as the byproduct. That is pretty cool because oil sand extraction has historically been a very, very dirty and expansive business. They want to expand their patents to the countries where lots of (dry) oil sands deposits live and make a fortune. Unfortunately, two of the biggest candidates are Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Russia and China — not exactly the worlds heaven of intellectual property (IP) protection countries.
    In fact, the bitcoin IP (ICO) backed by oil reserves by Venezuela in an interesting ploy. We thought the initial coil offering should more aptly be called an IKO, for Initial Kleptocurrency Offering.
    A cybercurrency like bitcoin is, however, an interesting way to do business in any world, especially a kleptocratic country. And blockchain is the underlying transaction technology. So the marriage of blockchain to this company has real merit (they call their technology PetroBLOQ). However, bitcoin and blockchain technology are publicly available — open source — technologies.
    Petrotech says that they can produce oil at $22 per barrel. Maybe even as low as $18. That’s impressive for oil sands. Transportation and the extra costs of processing heavy (“dirty” vs “sweet” West Texas type crude) change that dynamic some; but still impressive.
    What’s somewhat funny is this statement: “It extracts over 99 percent of all hydrocarbons in the sand, generates zero greenhouse gases and doesn’t require high temperatures or pressures.”
    Generates “zero greenhouse gases”? It has to be transported, refined, transported to the pump and then burned in a vehicle where it produces between 19 and 20 pounds of carbon dioxide per gallon, depending on the type of gas/diesel.
    Yes, more green than the tar sands of Alberta, but certainly not as green as wind or solar. 
    Look, as well, at the trillions of barrels of oil in sands around the world. Even if we could extract it all and burn it, does not mean we should burn it.
    Check out a sister blog on the scenarios associated with the demise of oil (excluding any discussion about greenhouse gas issues).