Perpetual Innovation

Category: Delphi

  • Scenarios Now and the Genius (hidden) within Crowd via ScenarioPlans.com

    On a sister site, there is a discussion by DelphiMan about the state of scenario planning today, and some new research on ways to squeeze out the genius among laypeople crowds: Scenarios Now and the Genius (hidden) within Crowd,
    Check it out here on ScenarioPlans.com (or DelphiPlan.com).
    First, a McKinsey study showed that CEOs really wished that they had done more scenario planning after the great recession. Before, really. But, now with almost 10 years in the rear-view mirror, it seems likely the idea of such vigilant planning for a flexible future has waned.
    In the meanwhile, the genius of  crowds can still be used very effectively using a Delphi Method approach to capture the expertise of experts (or informed people).
    A very interesting new study used a crowd of laypeople. Even when the crowd is, on average, misinformed, it is possible to identify those people who are really informed and correctly assess the truth.
    This reminds me, but in reverse, of a Lee Iacocca story when he was at Ford (prior to the turn-around at Chrysler). They surveyed people in upscale communities to see if they would like to buy the new Ford sports kind of car being developed including a convertible version. The answer was, unequivocally, NO!.  Lee sent his team back into the suburbs to ask again. But this time the question was two part: “Would you buy this car?” NO. Would your neighbor buy this car?” Absolutely YES!
    The Ford Mustang took the market by stampede!….

    “We are continually faced by great opportunities brilliantly disguised as insoluble problems.” 
    Lee Iacocca … from BrainyQuote.com 

  • A single round (1 round) Delphi study. Conundrum of HR – Scenario Plans

    A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (:

    Give a look at the two blogs related to Scenario plans and Delphi studies related to the 2007 research by Dr. Cheryl Lentz. Notice how Delphi-type research can be used for all kinds of studies.

    These are two blog posts. One on the actual Delphi research doing two things that make it a modified Delphi: 1 round, and quantitative.

    The second post is

    We love Delphi for scenario planning and a mechanism for innovation. But scenario planning is absolutely critical for sustainability planning. 
    See what you think?

    Keywords: Scenario Plans, Horizon Planning, innovation, Delphi, Future, innovation, perpetual innovation, 

    ‘via Blog this’

  • A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (

    A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (:

    Give a look at the two blogs related to Scenario plans and Delphi studies related to the 2007 research by Dr. Cheryl Lentz. Notice how Delphi-type research can be used for all kinds of studies.

    These are two blog posts. One on the actual Delphi research doing two things that make it a modified Delphi: 1 round, and quantitative.

    The second post is

    We love Delphi for scenario planning and a mechanism for innovation. 
    See what you think?

    Keywords, Scenario Plans, Horizon Planning, innovation, Delphi, Future, innovation, perpetual innovation, 

    ‘via Blog this’

  • Moore’s Law Shows Its Age – WSJ:

    Moore’s Law Shows Its Age – WSJ:

    This is a great story of 50 years of computing with geometric growth in speed and halfing price of costs.

    Of course the cost of a factory has gotten a little bit pricey!…

    Here is a sister article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-promise-at-technologys-powerful-heart-1429310535?KEYWORDS=moore%27s+law

    There are some physical limitations that really kick is as very small levels, say 12 nanometers. Getting smaller at that point is no longer as “easy” as it has been.

    Many people think that Moore’s Law is going to Peter out. Other’s like Ed Jordan (2010) in a Delphi Study found that the technology will likely need to change in the future. That the limitations of silicon will require a move to other technologies to reach that next BIG jump in smallness.

    Jordan’s 2010 study of computing technology experts found that,

    “a technology to replace silicon dioxide would most likely
    emerge sometime during the next 30 years” likely within 15 years… “the emerging
    technology would mostly likely be biologic, probably protein based.” (Hall & Jordan, 2013, p. 110)

    Hall and Jordan (2013) talk about the next big leap in computing technologies and what impact that will have for computing intensive companies and those companies that make computing products.

    It seems like about 50 years since we have had a truly disruptive technology innovation!…
    Well, maybe 3-D printing… We will see.

    References

    Hall, E. B., & Jordan, E. A. (2013). Strategic and scenario planning using Delphi: Long-term and rapid planning utilizing the genius of crowds. In C. A. Lentz (Ed.), The refractive thinker: Vol. II. Research methodology (3rd Ed.). (pp. 103-123) Las Vegas, NV: The Refractive Thinker® Press. 
    Jordan, E. A. (2010). The semiconductor industry and emerging technologies: A study using a modified Delphi Method. (Document No. 3442759, University of Phoenix). ProQuest Dissertations and Theses, 184. Retrieved from http://search.proquest.com/docview/853641948

    ‘via Blog this’