Perpetual Innovation

Category: environmental

  • Are Missing Love Bugs a Warning Sign?

    Are Missing Love Bugs a Warning Sign?

    Missing Love Bugs in Florida. E. Hall (2024, May)
    with (very) little help from DALL-E (OpenAI).

    As we go into Love Bug season in May,
    seeing no lovebugs may leave us all
    with mixed emotions:
    happiness and dismay! 

    [There have been some lovebug sightings, but not many… Let’s see how the season goes.]

    This is one of our GenAI assisted articles using an approach we call Regenerative Dynamic AI. (You can redo with your favorite GenAI at any time and link through to dynamically updated sources like Wikipedia: Lovebugs.) MS Copilot (2024, April) was used in this article because we wanted to more current Internet information.

    You: What happened to the lovebugs in Florida?

    [There have been some lovebug sightings, but not many… Let’s see how the
    season goes.]

    This is one of our GenAI assisted articles. MS Copilot (2024, April) was
    used in this article.

    You: What happened to the lovebugs in Florida?

    University of Florida entomologist
    Norman Leppla     has noticed the lack of lovebugs around the UF campus in
    Gainesville as well. However, the exact cause remains a bit mysterious.
    Lovebugs are quite sensitive to moisture and temperature, which
    makes their population dynamics closely tied to climate and weather conditions.
    Florida has experienced increasingly warmer temperatures, including one of its
    hottest summers on record. Lovebug larvae live on top of the soil, and extreme
    weather conditions could either “cook or drown” them.

    While there’s no direct link between the weather and the
    decline in lovebugs, several factors could be at play, including pollution,
    climate change, predators, or parasites. These little bugs might not be native
    to Florida, but any change in their behavior could signal something awry in
    nature. After all, we’re all
    interconnected, and environmental stresses affect us too    1.

    So,
    the mystery of the disappearing lovebugs continues, leaving us with sticky
    windshields and a few unanswered questions. 🐞🚗

    Learn more 1 Weather.com 2 sun-sentinel.com

    You:  Where are
    lovebugs native to?

    You: Related to lovebugs. Are lovebugs possibly the
    “canary in the coal mine” for other animals, bugs, plants? 

    Copilot
    (2024, May)

    Lovebugs,
    scientifically known as Plecia nearctica, are fascinating creatures
    found in parts of Central
    America     and the southeastern
    United States    , especially along the Gulf Coast. These
    small insects are also affectionately called “honeymoon flies” or “double-headed bugs” due
    to their unique mating behavior: matured pairs remain together, even in flight,
    for several days    12.

    Now,
    let’s explore whether lovebugs could indeed be the “canary in the coal mine”
    for other organisms:

    1.     
    Indicator
    Species    :

    2.     
    Environmental
    Sensitivity    :

      • Lovebugs
        are sensitive to environmental conditions, particularly moisture
        and temperature        .
      • Their
        population dynamics closely correlate with climate and weather changes.
      • Extreme
        weather conditions (such as excessive heat or heavy rain) can impact
        their survival.
      • If
        lovebugs experience fluctuations due to environmental stressors, it could
        signal broader ecological shifts.

    3.     
    Interconnected
    Ecosystems    :

      • Lovebugs
        interact with various components of their environment, including plants,
        soil, and other insects.
      • Changes
        in their behavior or abundance may have ripple effects on other species.
      • For
        example, if lovebugs decline significantly, it could affect pollination,
        nutrient cycling, or food webs.

    4.     
    Cautionary
    Tale    :

      • While
        lovebugs themselves might not directly represent imminent ecological
        collapse, their decline serves as a cautionary tale.
      • It
        reminds us to pay attention to subtle changes in our environment.
      • Just
        as the canary in the coal mine warned miners of toxic gases, lovebugs
        could serve as an early warning system for broader ecological imbalances.

    In
    summary, while lovebugs alone may not be the sole indicator, their sensitivity
    and interconnectedness highlight the need for vigilance in monitoring and
    protecting our ecosystems. Let’s appreciate these little bugs as more than just
    windshield nuisances—they might be whispering messages about our environment!

     

  • The BARD on Earth Day. Shakespeare in Love (with AI)

    The BARD on Earth Day. Shakespeare in Love (with AI)

    I’ve been soliciting the sage advise and wise words of the BARD recently… 

    I got my new best buddy Bard (AI from Google)
    to help with two blogs: World
    Water Day 2023: Accelerating Change     on March 22 and Earth
    Day 2023: Invest in our Planet     on April 22. 

    But, William Shakespeare would be 459 years olde today (~23 April 1564 — 23 April 1616), so I wondered what “The Bard” would have to say? On the comings and goings of Earth Day?  The question asked:

    What would Shakespeare say about Earth Day?

    Shakespeare was
    a man of the natural world. He wrote about it often in his plays and poems, and
    he seemed to have a deep appreciation for its beauty and power. I think he
    would be proud of the way we have come together to celebrate Earth Day, and he
    would encourage us to continue to do everything we can to protect our planet.

    Here is a poem
    I wrote that imagines what Shakespeare might say about Earth Day:

    O Earth, thou
    art our mother,

    And we are thy
    children.

    We are grateful
    for thy bounty,

    And we vow to
    protect thee.

     

    We will not
    pollute thy waters,

    Nor foul thy
    air.

    We will not cut
    down thy forests,

    Nor kill thy
    animals.

     

    We will live in
    harmony with thee,

    And we will
    work to make thee a better place for all.

     

    For thou art
    our home,

    And we are thy
    caretakers.

    We will not
    fail thee.

    ** **

    I hope you like
    it.

  • Earth Day 2020, 50 years of Hind sight

    It is the 50th Earth Day and the world is generally locked down while we deal with the Coronavirus pandemic — and how best to ramp back up the world economy.

    50th Earth Day. April 22 2020

    The pandemic is a serious and sobering aspect to the fun and excitement to an otherwise interesting and informative day of rallies, speeches waterway cleanups and more…

    Worldwide we are going on 3M positive COVID19 cases and nearing 200,000 deaths. The US, never to be outdone in anything that seems competitive, has 32% of the cases and more than 25% of the deaths. Deaths in New York and New Jersey just passed 15,000 and 5,000 respectively. New England deaths exceed all other countries. It is hard to imagine this given that the virus had to cross the Pacific (to the west coast) or travel to Europe and then cross the pond to New England. The US has only 4.2% of the world’s population, yet 25% of the worlds deaths, and rising. How can that be?

    COVID19 Positive Cases and Deaths

               As of April 22, 2020
           Cases  %/World
    World 2,621,436 100.0%
     deaths 182,989 7.0%
    7.0%   %/World
    US 837,719 32.0%
     deaths 46,771 25.6%
    Deaths% 5.6%

    COVID has had a big toll on health and live and a wicked toll on the world’s economies. There some linings, and some of them silver, from this
    pandemic – currently and on the other side of it. Let’s think of a couple while
    we address what the other side of COVID might look like. First, if you think
    that we will ever get back to “normal”, you probably haven’t thought it through
    a lot.

    Pollution. The massive slowdown in the world economy has
    allowed the earth to take a breather. There are wonderful satellite views of
    China, Europe and the US, before and after pictures. Business as usual shows
    clouds of pollution followed by a few weeks of complete economic shutdown, and
    pristine-looking skies. Wow! There are similar pictures everywhere. Denver. LA, New York. The clear
    canals of Venice with fish and dolphin. 
    Pollution contributes to hundreds of millions of ailments every year, and to millions and millions of deaths. Let’s say 6 to 10 million people die each year because of air pollution. (See for example, this Forbes article in 2018.) Note that the infographic shows about 2.1M in the USA. Maybe the slowdown in the first quarter of 2020 will result in 1M people saved related to air pollution? 
    Once people get a taste of clean air, they tend not to want to return to smog and pollution.
    A Whole New Economy. The world economy will never be the same. For several reasons. First, what we came to think of as “normal” was never normal. We have undertaken to consume all the world’s fossil fuels in a few short centuries. We are fully beginning to realize the full costs of non-sustainable systems, the business-as-usual economy was never normal.
    Earth Overshoot day is a concept that is especially relevant to the first Earth Day in 1970. The resources we took and consumed from the earth — although maybe not sustainable and renewable — were fully supplied by the 1 planet we inhabit. That is, the 3.7B world population in 1970, staying with the same consumption patters, could live on the earth without depleting her resources. Think of this earth carrying capacity like you do a annual budget, it would be nice if the annual income lasted all year. But the population has more than doubled to 7.7B, and overall consumption has nearly doubled. Right now, the carrying capacity of Earth is exhausted about the end of July, only 57% of the way through the year! That’s 43% deficit spending for the rest of the year. To consume 43% more than the earth’s annual carrying capacity, we deplete resources like trees, fish and more.
    But, in 2020, the earth has gotten a bit of a breather. Overshoot day will improve dramatically!
    The economy will change. There will never be a “new normal”. People have gotten a taste of teleworking. It’s going to be hard to force people back into the offices that require an hour commute each way. Travel will take some time to come back, and business travel will never be the same. Stadium events will take some time to come back. Students have fully embraced online learning, and they will never fully go back.
    Consumption of fossil fuels are down at least 30% during the closed economy, but consumption may only bounce back half when the economy slowly starts to churn back.
    This might be the jump start that we all needed to step up a move toward sustainability. Assuming a 15% jump back, we would need to reduce our carbon footprint by 3% each and every year to have a 40% (overall) reduction by 2030, a 66% reduction by 2040, and near zero by 2050. Good news, we can easily move to 100% renewables by that time. (See Stanford Roadmap to 100% Renewable Energy by 2050 by country and also by major city.) And we can profitably move to 100% renewables if we include the health and death costs of fossil fuels.
    Hind sight is 2020. Every year since the turn of century as been in the hottest 20 some years, with many years breaking all time records. In fact, many months have hit monthly record highs, especially since 2015 (an El Nino year). January 2020 was hottest on record, and the oceans have never been hotter. Remember that carbon dioxide (CO2) persists in the environment for about 100 years from the time we introduce it by burning fossil fuels. As CO2 zooms from about 320ppm a hundred years ago to 415ppm now, the green house gasses will result in atmospheric heating for a century!
    Our linear economy was never “normal”, for this reason, and many others no one should consider using the term “new normal” on the other side of the COVID recession. Hopefully, with 2020, we will have a new respect for science and scientists.
    Let’s leverage this tragedy of COVID to make a real difference in our trajectory of the future.
    May every day be an Earth Day.

  • Obama’s Climate Policy Is a Hot Mess – WSJ

    Obama’s Climate Policy Is a Hot Mess – WSJ:

    Bjorn Lomborg may have been best know for his massive tomb of a book entitled The Skeptical Environmentalist. Lomborg (2007) in The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World “may be the best source for reviewing the facts about quality of life, global
    warming, and the optimal approaches for addressing the issues.” (Hall, Taylor, Zapalski, & Hall, 2009, p. 5)

    Apparently he has since gone off to consult for oil & gas interest. That’s not all bad, but it does mean that he may not be unbiased as seemed to be the case during his Skeptical days.

    Bjorn talks about, essentially, the bang for the buck ($US, in this case). The current Obama plan doesn’t do much to move the global warming needle, especially given the costs. On the one hand, Obama will say that we have to start somewhere. In this case, and in several others, Bjorn simply says that this won’t do much good. A smart guy like that should suggest better alternatives.

    We, at SBPlan, argue that there are two monster places to start. AND neither requires the special help of government, really. Both are energy efficiency (EE) focused. Two EE business models that SBP especially likes are related to telecommuting using remote work centers and a pay-forward model
    of promoting energy efficiency in all buildings – residential, commercial and
    government. Since both of these initiatives save money, they offer a special win-win-win of sustainability (Employees, Employers and Environment, in this case).

    I’m a little disappointing that Bjorn has been simply complaining about the expense and the likely lack of success from various government initiatives, not offering up his own recommendations. It’s easy to complain and stop progress, but I give no respect to someone who does not offer up better alternatives. In the case of our non-sustainable practices of energy, the olde business as usual (BAU) model is a failed business model; it is only a matter of time for this living beyond our means model of existence will come crashing down.

    Bjorn offers up more research, presumably to make renewables more affordable. And touts the Fracking-NatGas revolutions as a massive windfall for reducing our pollution and greenhouse gases away from coal. NatGas is both good and bad; it shifts us away from really dirty energy associated with coal. Yeah!:-) But it reduced the costs and availability of all oil, gas and coal such that we may have tagged on another 50 years worth of fossil fuels to global economies before we really start to run low(er) and basic economics starts to really solves our addiction to fossil fuels. 

    If you read Bjorn’s Skeptical Environmentalist, you will find that he totally believes that there is global warming and that man is a big (?major?) contributor. When you read this book you will agree, even before including the 10 record hot years since he published in 2007. What he does say, forcefully then, and now, is that we need to focus on the efforts that will result the move benefits. Huge government spending on reducing CO2, especially in developing countries, may have little, none, or even negative results. 

    Bjorn ended up in a big tiff over the 2007 book Skeptical Environmentalist. If it was an opinion piece then it would be okay to take the liberties that he did with interpreting the results; but as a scientific book, he had gone way to far. The  Danish Committees on Scientific Dishonesty (DCSD) in Bjorn’s home country, charged him with academic dishonesty in the book. This ruling went against Bjorn. On appeal the charge of scientific dishonesty was sent back for a do-over, where it stalled out.

    Bjorg’s follow Skeptical Environmentalist book(s) have titles that start with “Cool it!”, concentrating on what to do that will likely have the most (short-term) benefits. 

    Bjorg, don’t just complain in op-eds about Obama and the other 200 countries who signed the Paris greenhouse deal this April (agreed to in Dec 2015). The average person reading this op-ed would think that we all should do nothing and wait for Bill Gates Foundation to find a cure. Give people real suggestions for actions. Or, are you simply trying to sell your books and consulting?

    References

    Hall, E., Taylor, S., Zapalski, C., & Hall, T.
    (2009). Sustainability in education: Green in the facilities, but not in the
    classrooms. Proceedings of the Society for Advancement of Management,
    USA.
    Lomborg, Bjorn. (2007). The skeptical environmentalist: Measuring the real state of the world. NY:
    Cambridge University Press.

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  • Ceres Monthly Newsletter – Flaring of Gas/NatGas

    Ceres Monthly Newsletter:
    Ceres Monthly Newsletter – Flaring of Gas/NatGas
    This report starts to document the amount of gas (nat gas) that is flared in the production of oil/gas.

    In the US we can’t get the nat gas to market, so it is imply flared in many cases. The oil (wet particulates) are much more valuable so that is shipped by pipe if possible, but by truck or train if not.

    One statement from a CEO in the oil patch has commented that half of the nat gas produces in the US is being flared. Safety, of course is critical. But this is a humongous waste of energy and environmental waste as well.

    Check out the article and then look at the report here: http://www.ceres.org/resources/reports/flaring-up-north-dakota-natural-gas-flaring-more-than-doubles-in-two-years/view

    Basic economics is one approach to this issue. If NatGas were more valuable, then there would be very little flaring. Right now it is about $3.50 (per … unit) in the USA. So Nat gas is a byproduct of the production of oil unless it can be readily distributed to market (pipeline).  But for the world markets, NatGas is very valuable, let’s say $10. If we can bridge the gap from domestic only to world, then the price would jump and the flaring would, well, burn out. 🙂

    The key is liquefied natural gas (LNG). Not coincidentally, LNG is the trading symbol of Chaniere Energy, one the the leading players in infrastructure for exporting LNG.

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