Perpetual Innovation

Category: Future

  • Invest in the Future of Self-Driving Cars and EVs

    When you look at the future of cars
    (and trucks) there’s a couple things that you can learn from the Jetsons. Yes,
    the cartoon characters of the future. Self-driving. Not limited by Gravity. 

    There are several things that would
    be reasonable to expect in the future of autos:

    1.     1.      Huge
    computing capabilities.
    2.      
    Mountains
    and mountains of data.
    3.      
    Lots
    of sensors.
    4.      
    Vehicles
    that can talk to each other, directly and indirectly. Kind of the Internet of
    things on (mobile) steroids.  (If the
    traffic ahead is stopped, it would be good to know before you get there.)
    5.      
    Electrification
    on the way to sustainable/renewable transportation.
    6.      
    Self-driving
    7.      
    New
    vehicle uses and business models.

    Although there is much overlap, we’ll
    focus on only two points at the moment, but from a stock-and-market
    perspective: the self-driving car and batteries (range).     Look at the article on IntellZine from 2017: Intel and Mobile Computing: An Eye on BIG Computing on the Move.

    Autos and Self-Driving. Everybody thinks of Tesla related
    to self-driving, but there are others. See excellent Wikipedia     Self-Driving article.  Lots of investors are trying to jump into the
    early stages and even the late stages of this market. But let’s start with
    Tesla.

    Tesla’s market cap at the end of
    2020 exceeded $650B, making it larger (based on stock value) than the top 10
    automakers     combined. In an industry that is expecting to sell only 14.5
    million units in 2020, it is a little hard to justify this crazy high market
    pricing. The Price-Earnings ratio is 1,300; but based on expected earnings, the
    PE is more rational for a growth stock at 160 times. However, if the rapid
    growth (130% yoy revenue growth) continues, the PEG ratio is closer to 1.3. For
    a smaller company expecting 100% or more revenue growth for several years is
    not impossible in some cases, but for a larger company going into a maturing
    industry, not so likely. So, buy tesla at these elevated levels at your own
    risk.

    The Tesla car has been referred to
    as an iPad on wheels. Much of the smarts behind the Tesla user interface is
    from Apple. Apple is by far the largest company in the world with $2.3T market
    cap. So, wouldn’t it be interesting if Apple decided to get into the Electric
    car business, as rumored (but not officially announced) in December 2020.
    Apple, in the meanwhile is developing their own chip sets so they can separate
    themselves from the big chipmakers, chips that are more efficient and faster.
    At the same time, Apple is partnering with manufactures of sensor technologies.
    Apple appears to be designing its own break-through battery technology. The
    current (announced) plan appears to be an Apple car release in 2024. (See the
    Reuter’s     article
    about this    .)

    So let’s see, the key 3 ingredients
    to the car of the future are: the software, the user interface/ecosystem, and
    the battery. Throw in the ability to market and sell. Anybody can manufacture
    the car, well, anyone with the factor and skilled factory workers. Apple looks
    like a safer buy even at a PE of 44 and 33 forward PE (back out the $100B cash,
    though). The PEG ratio is way high 3.3 because of -7% revenue growth last
    quarter, but it has historically been about 2.0 which is very reasonable for a
    mature but growth company.

    The other way to play these trends
    is to go for the break-through technology companies in the battery and sensor
    space. A couple that have gone absolutely nuts after a reverse merger this year
    are LAZR and (QS). QuantumScape (QS) has patented technologies and manufactures
    solid-state lithium-metal batteries, especially for the auto industry (up about
    1,000% over 6 months). Luminar Technologies (LAZR) designs, builds and sells
    long-range lidar products for autonomous driving (up about 300% since
    Thanksgiving). Both have stabilized a little, so consider buying them on
    weakness.

    Related to battery technology is
    fuel cell. Fuel cell technology functions like a battery or a battery backup,
    all you need is hydrogen. This year, fuel cell technology has gone absolutely
    bonkers. FuelCell (FCEL) is up from $2 to $12 in a month. Bloom (BE) is up from
    $5 in March to $30. Plug Power (PLUG) is up from $5 in June to $35 in December.
    Over the years you could have lost a lot of money owning these companies; maybe
    the time for fuel cell is finally arriving.

    In short, if you love Tesla, go buy
    the car. Lots of companies can, and will make the cars of the future, including
    electric and self-driving. The Tesla company does have room to grow in lots of
    directions (Trucks, Solar, HVAC), but there is already a MASIVE amount of
    growth already priced in.

     

  • Make your own fuel, while air conditioning (HVAC). Carbon Capture.

    Imagine a great idea that is entirely possible with new technology coming down the pipeline from various sources. That is what an article in Scientific American by Richard Conniff envisions based on a paper published in the Nature Communications which proposes a partial remedy based on A/C units:  Heating, ventilation and air conditioning (or HVAC) systems move a lot of air. Dittmeyer, Klumpp, Kant and Ozin (2019) describe the idea of using renewable energy from solar, wind and water to produce immediate energy and also produce a portable fuel as the democratization of energy.

    Basically, the idea is to take excess energy from the A/C condenser unit (heat dissipation in cooling mode) and extract hydrogen and carbon from the air and produce a hydrocarbon fuel. Sounds cool enough. And surprisingly not way-out there futuristic because some of the basic technologies are already developed. This is a great application of Carbon Capture and Sequester (CCS) technologies. It is extremely local, and would create a local fuel that could be portable (hydrogen and/or synthetic oil).

    Personally, I like the fuel cell concept where the fuel cell uses hydrogen and can go basically instant-on, thereby serving as a backup generator. Energy (from any source) can be used to make hydrogen from air, water and other sources including methane and alcohol. As an example, a miniature fuel cell can be implanted into the human body with hydrogen as the fuel, and recharged through the skin (reversing the fuel cell process with hydrogen and oxygen on one side and water on the other); thereby creating a low toxic battery solution.

    Implied in this article is the idea of using centralized power plants and then at the point of use, home or business, creating a CCS which also creates a local, portable fuel. This brings us back to industrial solutions where the CCS is done at the plant where about half of all the energy produced is lost (heat from turbines) and CO2 is intense vs the 410 (to 900) parts per million in the atmosphere (and in buildings).

    Hidden in this whole discussion is that scenario that is here and now, not futuristic. Renewable energy is cheaper and massively cleaner than conventional energy, and it can be located anywhere. Storage, in some form, is really the bottleneck; and storage in the form of synthetic fuels is a really, really cool (partial) solution.

    References

    Dittmeyer, R., Klumpp,
    M., Kant, P., & Ozin, G. (2019, April 30). Crowd oil not crude oil. Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09685-x

  • A single round (1 round) Delphi study. Conundrum of HR – Scenario Plans

    A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (:

    Give a look at the two blogs related to Scenario plans and Delphi studies related to the 2007 research by Dr. Cheryl Lentz. Notice how Delphi-type research can be used for all kinds of studies.

    These are two blog posts. One on the actual Delphi research doing two things that make it a modified Delphi: 1 round, and quantitative.

    The second post is

    We love Delphi for scenario planning and a mechanism for innovation. But scenario planning is absolutely critical for sustainability planning. 
    See what you think?

    Keywords: Scenario Plans, Horizon Planning, innovation, Delphi, Future, innovation, perpetual innovation, 

    ‘via Blog this’

  • A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (

    A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (:

    Give a look at the two blogs related to Scenario plans and Delphi studies related to the 2007 research by Dr. Cheryl Lentz. Notice how Delphi-type research can be used for all kinds of studies.

    These are two blog posts. One on the actual Delphi research doing two things that make it a modified Delphi: 1 round, and quantitative.

    The second post is

    We love Delphi for scenario planning and a mechanism for innovation. 
    See what you think?

    Keywords, Scenario Plans, Horizon Planning, innovation, Delphi, Future, innovation, perpetual innovation, 

    ‘via Blog this’