Perpetual Innovation

Category: IPCC

  • Study: sea levels rising quicker than previously estimated – Blue and Green Tomorrow

    Study: sea levels rising quicker than previously estimated – Blue and Green Tomorrow:

    This is a bit of good news which really is really bad news related to sea level rise.

    The good news, if you can call it that is sea levels appear to have been rising far slower during the first century of the industrial revolution than previously measured (estimated). Apparently the tidal measures that have been around for centuries didn’t represent some areas well, the poles and Florida, for example. A new study publishing in Nature analyzes and adjusts for the big gaps in prior ocean level measures. This is from a study in the journal Nature. Here.

    The bad news, is that the last few decades have been more than twice what was measured/estimated.

    At the new rate of 3mm per year, sea levels should rise only about one foot over the next 100 years. But this doesn’t count thermal expansion of the oceans warming (thermal expansion) over time such that a couple degrees centigrade should produce yards of increased sea levels once the temperature works its way through some 2 miles of ocean (on average).

    If this doesn’t make you nervous, you have been munching out a little too much on Colorado brownies, and not living very close to the sea shore.

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  • Highlights from the new IPCC report. 10 charts.

    http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/11/the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-top-10-charts/?utm_content=bufferf5770&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

    The new IPCC report on Climate Change. It is a little bit of a long read…
    The report spends some time on probabilities, including what “business as usual” looks. BAU gets ugly, and uglier, and ugliest.
    Starting early, not later, seems to make sense…!!!

  • Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans From Polar Melt – NYTimes.com: … Implications

    Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans From Polar Melt – NYTimes.com:

    Or: http://nyti.ms/1sEIHC3 

    Studies published in the journals Science (here) and Geophysical Research Letters  (here) magazine find that the antarctic is melting, probably at a very very fast pace. The terms “beyond the point of no return” and “unstoppable” are used to describe the collapse of this glacial area in Antarctica. How long it will take is harder to predict.

    This really scares the bejeebers  out of everyone. Let me summarize a few reasons why this is bothersome:
    * It seems that arctic (north) should be shrinking a little and the antarctic (south) should be expanding if there were no human factors influencing such. So the shrinking/melt-off in the south would/should have to overcome this tilting effect of the earth, and then some. (This “effect” is something for people far smarter than I to explain.)
    * The north pole is now becoming more navigable, longer in the summer as the ice sheets melt off. China, for example is planning to navigate through a north passage for 3 months a year and avoid bringing oil from Russia through the Suez Canal, essentially cutting the trip in half (and maybe making twice 6-months worth of oil runs.
    * The melt off in the north pole is not as worrisome in terms of direct ocean level rise because much of the ice is over water, so the conversion from ice in the north pole to water is not a big deal related to ocean rise (although the resulting warming of the oceans from more heat absorption and less glacial reflection definitely is).
    * The antarctic is mostly over land. The melting of the Antarctic glaciers results directly into a rise in the sea levels.
    * Combine that with apparent acceleration effect, as the glaciers melt, they move faster and faster, accelerating the depletion process.
    * Thermal expansion. As ocean and land become exposed by the melting ice sheets, the ocean, land and air all become warmer. In the case of the oceans, water expands. If the average dept of the oceans are 2 miles, the oceans levels should rise at about 2 feet for every increase in (water) temperature of 1 degree Centigrade.

    At this rate, the best case by the IPCC of 2 degrees C increase in global warming has got to be very unlikely. The worst case scenarios of business as usual (BAU) of 3 to 4 degrees or more seem to be the most likely… The 4 degree increase would result in about 9 feet (or 3 yards) increase in sea levels.

    That means that by the end of the century, water-front cities will have new waterfront. Venus and New York will be new shapes and sizes. The Florida Keys will be less than half their current size.

    Some of us would argue that Business as Usual is not working so well, especially if you care much about your grand kids and great grand kids.

    Keywords: Antarctica, Arctic, business as usual, glaciers, Global Warming, IPCC, North Pole, sea levels, thermal expansion,

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