Perpetual Innovation

Category: recession

  • Sustainability in EDU Over last 20 years

    The SustainZine has been blogging (although rather sporadically)
    for 11 years. Wow!. One of the first blogs was related to an article (and a SAM
    presentation) by Hall, Tayler, Zapalski and Hall (2009). It focused on
    sustainability in Higher ED, specifically on how the facilities of universities
    were doing sustainability initiatives but there were few actual classes on
    Sustainability. The classroom, i.e., the future of sustainability was far
    behind.

    Later in 2010 Hall (2010) published an article on Lessons of recessions: Sustainability
    education and jobs may be the answer.     (SustainZine
    Blog post here    .) This article discusses the Great Recession of 2007-2008.
    Make no doubt about the pandemic of 2020, it too was a recession so destructive
    innovation has been (and will continue to be) the result.

    People needed to go back to school during the Great Recession
    to up their skills and to avoid the big blank spot on their resume that comes
    from prolonged unemployment. But, universities continued with the same EDU
    programs as if nothing had changed. Universities were taking on Law students,
    for example, even though we were swimming with a glut of lawyers. Hall argued
    that programs of the future, like sustainability, might be a much better
    training program; it might be a differentiator when compared to a glut of the
    regular degree program graduates.

    Over the last 10 years there have been numerous
    Sustainability programs created and many “sustainability” classes created
    within almost every discipline of many universities and Tech Schools.

    Green jobs have outpaced almost all other job categories. See the Green Job forecasts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Solar and Wind technicians are in high demand, but so are all the environmental cleanup specializations. 

    Here’s the SustainZine blog on Sustainability in Education
    post from
    Jan 19, 2010    .

    Sustainability
    in Education?

    Even
    though campuses are getting greener, the classes are not.

    A big study of campuses, the Campus Report Card, by the NWF (with
    others) showed how much various schools are doing in terms of sustainability.
    They are doing a lot on campus but not much teaching of the concepts in the
    classroom. (Also see some recent research on Generation E.)

    The Campus Report Card is actually two
    similar studies, on in 2001 and one in 2008. They show that the course
    offerings of environmental and sustainability programs essentially reduced by
    half. That is, the average student in 2001 had an 8% chance of having an
    sustainability/environment class, but that dropped in half to 4% chance by
    2008.

    In fact the worst educational department was teachers education. “Teacher
    education, that program that trains K-12 teachers, has about a 15% chance of
    being able to take a course on sustainability within their major”
    (Hall et al., 2009, p. 17).

    The best guess as to why this drop happened is because of two forces. First,
    and probably foremost, the prices of oil were really low until after this
    2008 study was completed (and then they shot up to ~$150 per barrel). Second,
    the Bush/Chaney administration was friendly to oil interests and not so
    friendly to environmental interests (no links to environmental sites
    comments on this since this is a family-friendly site).

    Can we move forward with Sustainability in the US without educating on the
    subject?
    Tell us what you think?

    Reference
    Hall, E., Taylor, S., Zapalski, C., & Hall, T. (2009). Sustainability
    in education: Green in the facilities, but not in the classrooms. Proceedings
    of the Society for Advancement of Management, USA.

    Hall, E.
    (2010). Lessons of recessions: Sustainability education and jobs may be the
    answer.     Journal of Sustainability and Green Management. Jacksonville, FL: Academic and Business Research Institute.
    Retrieved from:     http://www.aabri.com/OC2010Manuscripts/OC10079.pdf  

  • Earth Day 2020, 50 years of Hind sight

    It is the 50th Earth Day and the world is generally locked down while we deal with the Coronavirus pandemic — and how best to ramp back up the world economy.

    50th Earth Day. April 22 2020

    The pandemic is a serious and sobering aspect to the fun and excitement to an otherwise interesting and informative day of rallies, speeches waterway cleanups and more…

    Worldwide we are going on 3M positive COVID19 cases and nearing 200,000 deaths. The US, never to be outdone in anything that seems competitive, has 32% of the cases and more than 25% of the deaths. Deaths in New York and New Jersey just passed 15,000 and 5,000 respectively. New England deaths exceed all other countries. It is hard to imagine this given that the virus had to cross the Pacific (to the west coast) or travel to Europe and then cross the pond to New England. The US has only 4.2% of the world’s population, yet 25% of the worlds deaths, and rising. How can that be?

    COVID19 Positive Cases and Deaths

               As of April 22, 2020
           Cases  %/World
    World 2,621,436 100.0%
     deaths 182,989 7.0%
    7.0%   %/World
    US 837,719 32.0%
     deaths 46,771 25.6%
    Deaths% 5.6%

    COVID has had a big toll on health and live and a wicked toll on the world’s economies. There some linings, and some of them silver, from this
    pandemic – currently and on the other side of it. Let’s think of a couple while
    we address what the other side of COVID might look like. First, if you think
    that we will ever get back to “normal”, you probably haven’t thought it through
    a lot.

    Pollution. The massive slowdown in the world economy has
    allowed the earth to take a breather. There are wonderful satellite views of
    China, Europe and the US, before and after pictures. Business as usual shows
    clouds of pollution followed by a few weeks of complete economic shutdown, and
    pristine-looking skies. Wow! There are similar pictures everywhere. Denver. LA, New York. The clear
    canals of Venice with fish and dolphin. 
    Pollution contributes to hundreds of millions of ailments every year, and to millions and millions of deaths. Let’s say 6 to 10 million people die each year because of air pollution. (See for example, this Forbes article in 2018.) Note that the infographic shows about 2.1M in the USA. Maybe the slowdown in the first quarter of 2020 will result in 1M people saved related to air pollution? 
    Once people get a taste of clean air, they tend not to want to return to smog and pollution.
    A Whole New Economy. The world economy will never be the same. For several reasons. First, what we came to think of as “normal” was never normal. We have undertaken to consume all the world’s fossil fuels in a few short centuries. We are fully beginning to realize the full costs of non-sustainable systems, the business-as-usual economy was never normal.
    Earth Overshoot day is a concept that is especially relevant to the first Earth Day in 1970. The resources we took and consumed from the earth — although maybe not sustainable and renewable — were fully supplied by the 1 planet we inhabit. That is, the 3.7B world population in 1970, staying with the same consumption patters, could live on the earth without depleting her resources. Think of this earth carrying capacity like you do a annual budget, it would be nice if the annual income lasted all year. But the population has more than doubled to 7.7B, and overall consumption has nearly doubled. Right now, the carrying capacity of Earth is exhausted about the end of July, only 57% of the way through the year! That’s 43% deficit spending for the rest of the year. To consume 43% more than the earth’s annual carrying capacity, we deplete resources like trees, fish and more.
    But, in 2020, the earth has gotten a bit of a breather. Overshoot day will improve dramatically!
    The economy will change. There will never be a “new normal”. People have gotten a taste of teleworking. It’s going to be hard to force people back into the offices that require an hour commute each way. Travel will take some time to come back, and business travel will never be the same. Stadium events will take some time to come back. Students have fully embraced online learning, and they will never fully go back.
    Consumption of fossil fuels are down at least 30% during the closed economy, but consumption may only bounce back half when the economy slowly starts to churn back.
    This might be the jump start that we all needed to step up a move toward sustainability. Assuming a 15% jump back, we would need to reduce our carbon footprint by 3% each and every year to have a 40% (overall) reduction by 2030, a 66% reduction by 2040, and near zero by 2050. Good news, we can easily move to 100% renewables by that time. (See Stanford Roadmap to 100% Renewable Energy by 2050 by country and also by major city.) And we can profitably move to 100% renewables if we include the health and death costs of fossil fuels.
    Hind sight is 2020. Every year since the turn of century as been in the hottest 20 some years, with many years breaking all time records. In fact, many months have hit monthly record highs, especially since 2015 (an El Nino year). January 2020 was hottest on record, and the oceans have never been hotter. Remember that carbon dioxide (CO2) persists in the environment for about 100 years from the time we introduce it by burning fossil fuels. As CO2 zooms from about 320ppm a hundred years ago to 415ppm now, the green house gasses will result in atmospheric heating for a century!
    Our linear economy was never “normal”, for this reason, and many others no one should consider using the term “new normal” on the other side of the COVID recession. Hopefully, with 2020, we will have a new respect for science and scientists.
    Let’s leverage this tragedy of COVID to make a real difference in our trajectory of the future.
    May every day be an Earth Day.

  • Solar 2020 and Sustainability: Looking for the Silver Lining

    Kelly Pickerel, Editor in Chief of Solar Power World
    magazine was cautiously optimistic in January when discussing the impact of US
    Import tariffs on the Solar industry and still solar installations were up 14%
    during 2019. She hoped that an even year, 2020, would bode well for solar.
    She concluded her opening letter by the editor in the January
    2020 Trends in Solar     edition of SPW: “Superstitious or not, I’m crossing my
    fingers for a calm, prosperous year in solar. Knock on wood.”
    Wow! Nobody could have envisioned the coronavirus pandemic
    and its impact on all industries including solar. But, the environment is
    taking a breather: Environment
    Wins with Reduced Human Activity    .
    During the Great Recession, Hall (2010) argued that a
    massive opportunity was lost by not by not focusing on sustainability related
    projects and human capital (education). He argued for spending more on specific
    infrastructure: especially energy efficiency and renewables. He liked projects
    that would pay back for decades while reducing our collective human footprint. Federal
    bailout funding should target, long-term, sustainable projects. The destructive
    innovation associated with recessions should allow industries (and companies)
    to fail if they are not sustainable.
    Make no doubt about it, the COVID Recession will be unlike
    anything we have ever seen before. It’s like putting parts of the economy in a
    self-induced coma, while waiting out the passage of the virus. However, waking
    up exactly where we left off is probably not going to happen. So, what’s the
    best way to move forward, and why not try to leverage this sudden break in the
    world’s business-as-usual routine into more permanent action on becoming more
    sustainable.
    Look for SustainZine blogs and articles on video meetings,
    teleschool, online university and telecommuting. We suddenly have reduced our
    carbon footprint worldwide by what, 20%. Not the way we would have liked to
    launch such a massive initiative, but let’s work with the deflection we are
    given.
    People are now at home more than ever, let’s get them to
    start monitoring their carbon footprint. How much are they saving by working,
    schooling and entertaining at home. Imagine someone reducing their carbon
    footprint by 35% in one week? for several weeks? Wouldn’t it be nice measure
    that savings and celebrate the win!? Wouldn’t it be nice to keep measuring the
    reduction in carbon footprint and continue to make incremental moves?
    The savings associated with remote work are huge. Once
    workers who can work remotely get the chance to do so, the genie will be out of
    the bottle. The savings are massive: employer, employee and environment. The
    reduction in carbon footprint immense. Measuring and monitoring the savings
    will justify the future workforce to frequently work remotely.
    For the homeowner, first would be energy efficiency, like
    insulation. Start with an energy audit.
    Then, with the reduced power usage, most homes should move
    to renewable energy (solar).
    Once we see and visualize the gains, it could become habit
    forming. Let’s keep our collective fingers crossed.
    See upcoming articles by Hall about the crazy profitable
    proposition for businesses to go solar, and for homeowners to feel good and
    save money by going solar.
    Mother Earth is our one and only habitable planet. It’s time
    we started taking better care of her. Maybe the coronavirus pandemic will be a
    wake-up call about how serious we all need to be about the health of our planet?
    References
    Hall, E. (2010). Lessons of
    recessions: Sustainability education and jobs may be the answer. Journal of Sustainability and Green
    Management    . Jacksonville, FL: Academic and Business Research Institute.
    Retrieved from: http://www.aabri.com/manuscripts/10659.pdf

  • Little history on Recessions… Lessons in Recessions.

    The question recently came up as to “I still have never gotten a great description how we got into the Great Depression?”

    The truth is, it wasn’t easy.

    But one of the best 4 minute explanations ever is on this YouTube video: Causes of the Great Depression.

    John Maynard Keynes, the king of Keynesian economics, would call these expansions and contractions, not recessions. You get them free with a capitalist economic system. With the exception of China, it seems that you may only get the contractions in communist systems (like USSR, Cuba, S. Korea and Venezuela).

    Read more on the Great Depression at Wikipedia. As it pertains specifically to the USA, it is pretty heavy reading, though.

    You can look at the similarities of the recessions of 2000 (the DotCom bomb) and the Great Recession of 2007-200x. In all cases there were financial bubbles at work. But the Great Recession was bubble-bulging in housing and financial markets throughout the USA and beyond. It effected all US industries and and all US States. No place to run from it, and no place to hide from it.

    Apply called The Great Recession, it is a generational recession. That is, economists argue that you should only see such a recession about once in your lifetime.  Note the massive overhang of shadow banking and the increase in uncertainty (including the use of derivatives).

    Of course, you should only experience a hurricane about once in your lifetime or see a massive flood about every 500 years. Sometimes historical precedent does not accurately foretell the future?

    You should expect markets to overshoot, maybe wildly, in the future. The overshoot will be to down side and to the up, as well.

    Keep going up, but carry a parachute.

    BTW. Check out this article about doing the same-old, same old, after a recession obviously suggests that a new approach is needed. Creating the same college degrees as if there would be jobs for them is, well, not smart!

    Hall, E. (2010). Lessons of recessions: Sustainability education and jobs may be the answer. Journal of Sustainability and Green Management. Jacksonville, FL: Academic and Business Research Institute. Retrieved from: http://www.aabri.com/OC2010Manuscripts/OC10079.pdf  

    Keywords: recession, Recovery, Great Depression, Great Recession, Keynes, Sustainable Education