Perpetual Innovation

Category: Scenario Plans

  • Are Missing Love Bugs a Warning Sign?

    Are Missing Love Bugs a Warning Sign?

    Missing Love Bugs in Florida. E. Hall (2024, May)
    with (very) little help from DALL-E (OpenAI).

    As we go into Love Bug season in May,
    seeing no lovebugs may leave us all
    with mixed emotions:
    happiness and dismay! 

    [There have been some lovebug sightings, but not many… Let’s see how the season goes.]

    This is one of our GenAI assisted articles using an approach we call Regenerative Dynamic AI. (You can redo with your favorite GenAI at any time and link through to dynamically updated sources like Wikipedia: Lovebugs.) MS Copilot (2024, April) was used in this article because we wanted to more current Internet information.

    You: What happened to the lovebugs in Florida?

    [There have been some lovebug sightings, but not many… Let’s see how the
    season goes.]

    This is one of our GenAI assisted articles. MS Copilot (2024, April) was
    used in this article.

    You: What happened to the lovebugs in Florida?

    University of Florida entomologist
    Norman Leppla     has noticed the lack of lovebugs around the UF campus in
    Gainesville as well. However, the exact cause remains a bit mysterious.
    Lovebugs are quite sensitive to moisture and temperature, which
    makes their population dynamics closely tied to climate and weather conditions.
    Florida has experienced increasingly warmer temperatures, including one of its
    hottest summers on record. Lovebug larvae live on top of the soil, and extreme
    weather conditions could either “cook or drown” them.

    While there’s no direct link between the weather and the
    decline in lovebugs, several factors could be at play, including pollution,
    climate change, predators, or parasites. These little bugs might not be native
    to Florida, but any change in their behavior could signal something awry in
    nature. After all, we’re all
    interconnected, and environmental stresses affect us too    1.

    So,
    the mystery of the disappearing lovebugs continues, leaving us with sticky
    windshields and a few unanswered questions. 🐞🚗

    Learn more 1 Weather.com 2 sun-sentinel.com

    You:  Where are
    lovebugs native to?

    You: Related to lovebugs. Are lovebugs possibly the
    “canary in the coal mine” for other animals, bugs, plants? 

    Copilot
    (2024, May)

    Lovebugs,
    scientifically known as Plecia nearctica, are fascinating creatures
    found in parts of Central
    America     and the southeastern
    United States    , especially along the Gulf Coast. These
    small insects are also affectionately called “honeymoon flies” or “double-headed bugs” due
    to their unique mating behavior: matured pairs remain together, even in flight,
    for several days    12.

    Now,
    let’s explore whether lovebugs could indeed be the “canary in the coal mine”
    for other organisms:

    1.     
    Indicator
    Species    :

    2.     
    Environmental
    Sensitivity    :

      • Lovebugs
        are sensitive to environmental conditions, particularly moisture
        and temperature        .
      • Their
        population dynamics closely correlate with climate and weather changes.
      • Extreme
        weather conditions (such as excessive heat or heavy rain) can impact
        their survival.
      • If
        lovebugs experience fluctuations due to environmental stressors, it could
        signal broader ecological shifts.

    3.     
    Interconnected
    Ecosystems    :

      • Lovebugs
        interact with various components of their environment, including plants,
        soil, and other insects.
      • Changes
        in their behavior or abundance may have ripple effects on other species.
      • For
        example, if lovebugs decline significantly, it could affect pollination,
        nutrient cycling, or food webs.

    4.     
    Cautionary
    Tale    :

      • While
        lovebugs themselves might not directly represent imminent ecological
        collapse, their decline serves as a cautionary tale.
      • It
        reminds us to pay attention to subtle changes in our environment.
      • Just
        as the canary in the coal mine warned miners of toxic gases, lovebugs
        could serve as an early warning system for broader ecological imbalances.

    In
    summary, while lovebugs alone may not be the sole indicator, their sensitivity
    and interconnectedness highlight the need for vigilance in monitoring and
    protecting our ecosystems. Let’s appreciate these little bugs as more than just
    windshield nuisances—they might be whispering messages about our environment!

     

  • The EV Hurricane Disaster: a 1-sided scenario, part 2

    Read  The
    EV Hurricane Disaster: a 1-sided scenario     on our sister blog
    ScenarioPlans.com (also DelphiPlan.com). The EV disaster article analyzes a viral email
    that talks about how horrible it will be when a hurricane is storming into a
    population center and the electric vehicles are all stuck on the road with no
    possibility for charging.

    The unauthored and undated email makes the implied conclusion
    that we shouldn’t go to EVs because they could be problematic in a disaster, stuck in a mass exodus from a hurricane with dying batteries and no place to charge.

    There are at least three scenarios for analysis in that
    ScenarioPlans article (part 1). One is related to disaster planning related to
    EVs. Two is related to insisting on comparisons with “business as usual”
    comparisons so the non-sustainable and broken business models do not somehow
    become the gold standard. Three is combating bias and taking away the power
    from misinformation.

    It would be interesting to work through the scenario of a
    future with mostly EVs. That may be at best 30 years from now because of the
    time to turn over the existing internal combustion (ICE) fleet of vehicles. The
    average age of cars on road is currently 11 years.  In 2022 there will probably be only 5% new electric.
    It will take decades, under any EV adoption rate for EVs to overtake ICE
    machines.

    You first have to envision what the infrastructure will be
    in the future. (This, as we currently are building lots of large gas stations
    for gas and diesel, phasing out the small gas stations.) It would be reasonable
    to assume that all gas stations would start to add in charging stations in a few
    years.

    But with millions of people and businesses having charging stations,
    there should be no reason that those charging locations could not be
    incorporated to the charging grid options.  If the businesses and homes had solar (and
    battery backup) the resilience could be impressive. With solar and wind, many
    areas could have plenty of electricity for personal and commercial EV use
    indefinitely. No oil tankers needed.

    I’m thinking of kind of an Air B&B for charging, maybe
    and Air Charge & Go (Air C&G). Any superstore or parking lot with
    charging stations could offer to charge (pun intended) the mass exodus of EVs.

    Of course, we might be trying to find a solution to a
    problem that does not exist. In 30 years, the batteries and the charging
    technology will be much better. So, it may only take 5 to 10 minutes to charge
    (say 70%), not that much longer than it takes a car to get gas. And
    transporting gas around during disasters has its own set of problems.

    About 8% to 10% of the world’s economy is embedded directly
    and indirectly in energy, most of which is fossil fuels. All this money funds
    countries that are ruthless and unfriendly to us, as well as companies that
    have generally demonstrated a disregard for people, society, and the
    environment. Plus, fossil fuels are unsustainable. Period. Somehow, we have
    come to think of the broken business model of fossil fuels as “normal”. If it
    is not sustainable, then “business as usual” is not a viable option; yet in
    scenario planning, you should probably consider fossil fuels the “base case”.
    Shell has been a leader in scenario planning, including the energy future
    (check out Scenarios
    and The Energy Future from Shell    ).

    Recession has winners and losers, destructive innovation.
    An energy revolution will have winners and losers. There will be lots and
    lots of good paying jobs (in hydro, wind and solar). But there will be ongoing
    pain to the fossil fuel economy. Workers in mines and on rigs will have to
    transition. Investors will lose money as oil companies go out of business.
    Governments will have to pick up the expenses of hundreds of years of mines,
    pipes, refineries, and tanks. Orphaned wells are already a huge problem; many,  if not most, are leaking or will leak in the
    future.

    Of course, fear and uncertainty is actually the point of
    many of the misinformation initiatives. Imagine what happens to Russia, Saudi
    Arabia and oil companies when (not if) we get off of our addition to oil. Russia
    could no longer do as much mischief around the world when the major source of
    government funding (oil exports) dries up. Iran’s funding for nuclear weapons
    and terrorism would dry up… etc…

    So, when a one-sided meme or email comes flittering across
    your screen that trashes a renewable, ask them where is the other half of the
    discussion. No one would send out only one side of a discussion or a one-sided
    debate. And certainly no one would want to perpetuate one-sided propaganda? Right?
    !:-)

    #ScenarioPlans #BrokenBaseCase #Sustainability #EVs #100RE

  • Criminal Injustice: Is abnormal non-sustainable?

    We at SustainZine look for things that are abnormal, things that are so inefficient and clearly irresponsible that they should be categorized as non-sustainable. We think the Criminal Justice system in the USA qualifies and non-sustainable.

    Question, what is a “normal” rate of incarceration for you citizens? And if you are a way out-of-control outlier to the other developed countries, does this represent non-sustainability.
    That is, if you don’t put anyone in jail, are you leaving your citizens to be rampaged by mobs and vigilantes? If you have far more people in jail than any other developed country, is this non-sustainable. When does it fully represent a “broken” system of (in)justice.

    Our sister site ScenarioPlans.com (or DelphiPlan.com) talks about the US criminal system of incarceration. It is clearly broken, and totally not sane: More prisoners in US than any other country: Criminal (In)Justice Scenarios.

    Here is the first paragraph:

    The US has the most people incarcerated of any country in the world…
    Even though we only have 4.3% of the world’s population, we have more inmates —
    2.2 million — than China (1.5m) and India (0.3m), combined (36.4% of world
    population)! We have 23% of China’s population but 40% more incarcerated. We
    have almost 1% of our population (0.737%) incarcerated! We have 6 times higher
    incarceration rate than China, 12 times higher that Japan, and 24 times the
    rates in India and Nigeria. That’s right, an American has a 1,200% greater
    chance of being incarcerated than a Japanese citizen. We have even a 20% higher
    incarceration rate than Russia with 0.615% of their population in (Siberian)
    prisons and jails.

    Tell us what you think. Is this insane? Do we need to reform? What do you think could be rationally called a “sustainable” level of incarceration?

  • Scenarios Now and the Genius (hidden) within Crowd via ScenarioPlans.com

    On a sister site, there is a discussion by DelphiMan about the state of scenario planning today, and some new research on ways to squeeze out the genius among laypeople crowds: Scenarios Now and the Genius (hidden) within Crowd,
    Check it out here on ScenarioPlans.com (or DelphiPlan.com).
    First, a McKinsey study showed that CEOs really wished that they had done more scenario planning after the great recession. Before, really. But, now with almost 10 years in the rear-view mirror, it seems likely the idea of such vigilant planning for a flexible future has waned.
    In the meanwhile, the genius of  crowds can still be used very effectively using a Delphi Method approach to capture the expertise of experts (or informed people).
    A very interesting new study used a crowd of laypeople. Even when the crowd is, on average, misinformed, it is possible to identify those people who are really informed and correctly assess the truth.
    This reminds me, but in reverse, of a Lee Iacocca story when he was at Ford (prior to the turn-around at Chrysler). They surveyed people in upscale communities to see if they would like to buy the new Ford sports kind of car being developed including a convertible version. The answer was, unequivocally, NO!.  Lee sent his team back into the suburbs to ask again. But this time the question was two part: “Would you buy this car?” NO. Would your neighbor buy this car?” Absolutely YES!
    The Ford Mustang took the market by stampede!….

    “We are continually faced by great opportunities brilliantly disguised as insoluble problems.” 
    Lee Iacocca … from BrainyQuote.com 

  • A single round (1 round) Delphi study. Conundrum of HR – Scenario Plans

    A single round (1 round) Delphi study. How can that be? – Scenario Plans (:

    Give a look at the two blogs related to Scenario plans and Delphi studies related to the 2007 research by Dr. Cheryl Lentz. Notice how Delphi-type research can be used for all kinds of studies.

    These are two blog posts. One on the actual Delphi research doing two things that make it a modified Delphi: 1 round, and quantitative.

    The second post is

    We love Delphi for scenario planning and a mechanism for innovation. But scenario planning is absolutely critical for sustainability planning. 
    See what you think?

    Keywords: Scenario Plans, Horizon Planning, innovation, Delphi, Future, innovation, perpetual innovation, 

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