Perpetual Innovation

Category: thermal expansion

  • 2015 Earth fails another annual physical. Ugly Temp Rise!:-(

    BAMS State of the Climate | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) formerly known as National Climatic Data Center (NCDC):

    State of the Climate: Earth fails another annual physical. Or, maybe better stated, human activity resulted in another horrible annual reading of Earths temps. Beyond time to move Earth from a Private room to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU).

    Unfortunately, 2015 blasted past all records set in 2014. The El Nino effect help somewhat, and looks like it will assist somewhat with 2016 setting even more records. Although el Nino is a natural occurrence, the effects can be removed statistically; plus, it should have less of an effect on 2016 which is on pace to shoot past the monthly and annual records of 2015.

    Ouch!

    The word used to describe the report was “Grim”.

    “Ugly”, would be descriptive too.

    Of the 50 or so metrics used, only Antarctica showed a few positive signs, mixed with some serious negatives. Highlights include:

    • Greenhouse gases hit records, passing the 400ppm of CO2, to blast past all modern records.
    • Surface temps set records by a mile, breaking the record set in 2014.
    • Sea surface temps set a record, breaking the record set in 2014. (Part of the El Nino effect as it pertains to the Pacific.)
    • Globally, upper ocean heat content exceeded the record set in 2014, “reflecting the continuing accumulation of thermal energy in the upper layer of the oceans. Oceans absorb over 90 percent of Earth’s excess heat from global warming.”  Which brings us to thermal expansion, as water heats it expands. If average depths of oceans are 2 miles, that thermal expansion eventually adds up as temps permeate throughout the oceans.
    • Global Seal Levels highest on record. (Especially precises since the use of satellites over the last 20 years.) 
    • Extremes in water cycles and precipitation. 
    • And extreme weather. Thousands of people dies from heat in India/Pakistan, for example. 
    • In North America we don’t realize what an ugly year 2015 was for cyclones because it was very tame for hurricanes. “There were 101 tropical cyclones across all ocean basins in 2015, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82 storms. The eastern/central Pacific had 26 named storms, the most since 1992.” 

    The main report site (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams) said this:

    “The report, led by NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, is based on contributions from more than 450 scientists from 62 countries around the world and reflects tens of thousands of measurements from multiple independent datasets (highlights, full report (link is external)). It provides a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice and in space.”

    Lots of good places to go view more details about any and all discussions, statistics and assertions.

    You choose the word: Ugly? Grim? @#$@#$@ ???

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  • Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans From Polar Melt – NYTimes.com: … Implications

    Scientists Warn of Rising Oceans From Polar Melt – NYTimes.com:

    Or: http://nyti.ms/1sEIHC3 

    Studies published in the journals Science (here) and Geophysical Research Letters  (here) magazine find that the antarctic is melting, probably at a very very fast pace. The terms “beyond the point of no return” and “unstoppable” are used to describe the collapse of this glacial area in Antarctica. How long it will take is harder to predict.

    This really scares the bejeebers  out of everyone. Let me summarize a few reasons why this is bothersome:
    * It seems that arctic (north) should be shrinking a little and the antarctic (south) should be expanding if there were no human factors influencing such. So the shrinking/melt-off in the south would/should have to overcome this tilting effect of the earth, and then some. (This “effect” is something for people far smarter than I to explain.)
    * The north pole is now becoming more navigable, longer in the summer as the ice sheets melt off. China, for example is planning to navigate through a north passage for 3 months a year and avoid bringing oil from Russia through the Suez Canal, essentially cutting the trip in half (and maybe making twice 6-months worth of oil runs.
    * The melt off in the north pole is not as worrisome in terms of direct ocean level rise because much of the ice is over water, so the conversion from ice in the north pole to water is not a big deal related to ocean rise (although the resulting warming of the oceans from more heat absorption and less glacial reflection definitely is).
    * The antarctic is mostly over land. The melting of the Antarctic glaciers results directly into a rise in the sea levels.
    * Combine that with apparent acceleration effect, as the glaciers melt, they move faster and faster, accelerating the depletion process.
    * Thermal expansion. As ocean and land become exposed by the melting ice sheets, the ocean, land and air all become warmer. In the case of the oceans, water expands. If the average dept of the oceans are 2 miles, the oceans levels should rise at about 2 feet for every increase in (water) temperature of 1 degree Centigrade.

    At this rate, the best case by the IPCC of 2 degrees C increase in global warming has got to be very unlikely. The worst case scenarios of business as usual (BAU) of 3 to 4 degrees or more seem to be the most likely… The 4 degree increase would result in about 9 feet (or 3 yards) increase in sea levels.

    That means that by the end of the century, water-front cities will have new waterfront. Venus and New York will be new shapes and sizes. The Florida Keys will be less than half their current size.

    Some of us would argue that Business as Usual is not working so well, especially if you care much about your grand kids and great grand kids.

    Keywords: Antarctica, Arctic, business as usual, glaciers, Global Warming, IPCC, North Pole, sea levels, thermal expansion,

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