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  • Sustainability and the Future of Self-Driving Cars and EVs

    IntellZine
    just wrote an article on how to     Invest in the Future of Self-Driving Cars
    and EVs (    https://www.intellzine.com/2020/12/invest-in-future-of-self-driving-cars.html).


    What’s not really covered is the
    Sustainability of EVs, self-driving cars etc. Internal combustion engines predominantly
    use fossil fuels but they can use renewable ethanol or biodiesel. Electric cars
    have the most promise because it is much easier to produce electricity from
    renewable sources like hydro, wind and solar. Plus, wind and solar have become
    the best and cheapest source of stationary electricity, even considering the impact
    of batteries.

    But one mobile power method that is
    not considered as much is hydrogen. In terms of stationary electricity, fuel
    cells can be used for emergency backup power (nearly instant on) and/or for
    continuous power. Although there are lots of ways to make hydrogen, all you
    really need is energy and water. (How to get hydrogen from Energy.Gov.)
    Currently, the most common method, by far is from NatGas or Ammonia.

    Fuel cell has interesting solutions
    to the battery problems, especially for range extension. Plus, hydrogen filling
    stations are being added along major routes, but nothing like electric charging and NatGas (see chart here). As the IntellZine article
    discussed, some of the fuel cell companies have gone up wildly over the last 6
    months, especially Plug. Plug (PLUG) built its business on fuel cell forklifts;
    a super clean and very efficient approach. Investors might be looking at the
    future markets for fuel cell and pricing for it. Or, they might simply be
    wrong.

  • Invest in the Future of Self-Driving Cars and EVs

    When you look at the future of cars
    (and trucks) there’s a couple things that you can learn from the Jetsons. Yes,
    the cartoon characters of the future. Self-driving. Not limited by Gravity. 

    There are several things that would
    be reasonable to expect in the future of autos:

    1.     1.      Huge
    computing capabilities.
    2.      
    Mountains
    and mountains of data.
    3.      
    Lots
    of sensors.
    4.      
    Vehicles
    that can talk to each other, directly and indirectly. Kind of the Internet of
    things on (mobile) steroids.  (If the
    traffic ahead is stopped, it would be good to know before you get there.)
    5.      
    Electrification
    on the way to sustainable/renewable transportation.
    6.      
    Self-driving
    7.      
    New
    vehicle uses and business models.

    Although there is much overlap, we’ll
    focus on only two points at the moment, but from a stock-and-market
    perspective: the self-driving car and batteries (range).     Look at the article on IntellZine from 2017: Intel and Mobile Computing: An Eye on BIG Computing on the Move.

    Autos and Self-Driving. Everybody thinks of Tesla related
    to self-driving, but there are others. See excellent Wikipedia     Self-Driving article.  Lots of investors are trying to jump into the
    early stages and even the late stages of this market. But let’s start with
    Tesla.

    Tesla’s market cap at the end of
    2020 exceeded $650B, making it larger (based on stock value) than the top 10
    automakers     combined. In an industry that is expecting to sell only 14.5
    million units in 2020, it is a little hard to justify this crazy high market
    pricing. The Price-Earnings ratio is 1,300; but based on expected earnings, the
    PE is more rational for a growth stock at 160 times. However, if the rapid
    growth (130% yoy revenue growth) continues, the PEG ratio is closer to 1.3. For
    a smaller company expecting 100% or more revenue growth for several years is
    not impossible in some cases, but for a larger company going into a maturing
    industry, not so likely. So, buy tesla at these elevated levels at your own
    risk.

    The Tesla car has been referred to
    as an iPad on wheels. Much of the smarts behind the Tesla user interface is
    from Apple. Apple is by far the largest company in the world with $2.3T market
    cap. So, wouldn’t it be interesting if Apple decided to get into the Electric
    car business, as rumored (but not officially announced) in December 2020.
    Apple, in the meanwhile is developing their own chip sets so they can separate
    themselves from the big chipmakers, chips that are more efficient and faster.
    At the same time, Apple is partnering with manufactures of sensor technologies.
    Apple appears to be designing its own break-through battery technology. The
    current (announced) plan appears to be an Apple car release in 2024. (See the
    Reuter’s     article
    about this    .)

    So let’s see, the key 3 ingredients
    to the car of the future are: the software, the user interface/ecosystem, and
    the battery. Throw in the ability to market and sell. Anybody can manufacture
    the car, well, anyone with the factor and skilled factory workers. Apple looks
    like a safer buy even at a PE of 44 and 33 forward PE (back out the $100B cash,
    though). The PEG ratio is way high 3.3 because of -7% revenue growth last
    quarter, but it has historically been about 2.0 which is very reasonable for a
    mature but growth company.

    The other way to play these trends
    is to go for the break-through technology companies in the battery and sensor
    space. A couple that have gone absolutely nuts after a reverse merger this year
    are LAZR and (QS). QuantumScape (QS) has patented technologies and manufactures
    solid-state lithium-metal batteries, especially for the auto industry (up about
    1,000% over 6 months). Luminar Technologies (LAZR) designs, builds and sells
    long-range lidar products for autonomous driving (up about 300% since
    Thanksgiving). Both have stabilized a little, so consider buying them on
    weakness.

    Related to battery technology is
    fuel cell. Fuel cell technology functions like a battery or a battery backup,
    all you need is hydrogen. This year, fuel cell technology has gone absolutely
    bonkers. FuelCell (FCEL) is up from $2 to $12 in a month. Bloom (BE) is up from
    $5 in March to $30. Plug Power (PLUG) is up from $5 in June to $35 in December.
    Over the years you could have lost a lot of money owning these companies; maybe
    the time for fuel cell is finally arriving.

    In short, if you love Tesla, go buy
    the car. Lots of companies can, and will make the cars of the future, including
    electric and self-driving. The Tesla company does have room to grow in lots of
    directions (Trucks, Solar, HVAC), but there is already a MASIVE amount of
    growth already priced in.

     

  • Survival Planning: using scenarios in times of extreme uncertainty

    Survival Planning: using scenarios in times of extreme uncertainty

    A Recession is destructive innovation. It has accelerated, for example, the Amazon effect of online sales and purchases with the closure of some 29 retailers. The recession of the 2020 Pandemic is different in some respects, straining local restaurants and bars, even the best of local.

    (more…)

  • Putting Pen to Paper with Patent Innovation

    When you think about images of the first writing instruments, you envision charcoal, paint brushes and quill pens. The image of Shakespeare dipping a quill pen into an ink well come to mind. The ink smeared, it blotched and it took time to dry. You know the sign of a writer by the ink all over their hands (and their poverty, of course). The poverty part is still true, about the starving writer, right?

    There are many key inventions related to the pen, but none so significant as the ball-point pen. The most significant developments involving the ballpoint pen can be traced to Hungarian inventor László Jozsef Bíró. Stephen Brackman provides a great history of ball-point invention and the patent history at IPWatchdog.

    The reason that anyone and everyone ended up with dozens of pens is because of 

     Bic. Marcel Bich (company name was shortened to Bic) was the key player in this mass production product bringing the pen down to $1 or so per pen from hundreds of dollars per pen (converted to current price equivalents). Bic licensed the patent technology from Bíró, and also had a couple design patents.

    A great article about the evolution of the ball-point pen is presented in BBC by Stephen Dowling (Oct 29, 2020). As you read through, read through this exceptional history, think about the monks copying books by hand, and how far and how fast we have moved forward with the printing press, the pen, the mail.  All still in use today. (Well, not the original printing presses…)

    Another fun article is about other patents in the ink printing space. Here are 5 Fascinating Pen Patents at the Fun Facts section of Jet Pens. You want to read and look at the pix!:-) Here are the 5 patents:

    • Pilot Frixion Erasable Gel Ink Pen. That’s right, you write in this special ink and the eraser erases it. (Kinda, thermal makes the ink invisible.)
    • Fisher Space Pen. The pen that has pressurization, so it works up-side-down and in space.
    • Lamy Dialog 3 Fountain Pen. This fountain pen retracts and then a solid ball covers the nib so it doesn’t dry or leak.
    • Field Notes Color Cover Memo Book, Expedition Edition. This specialized book has Yupo synthetic paper that is waterproof, tear-proof and 100% recyclable. So this is not really a pen, but for a pen to work, you do need paper. You will want to take this book and your space pen on your Himalayan adventure.
    • Sakura Gelly Roll Gel Ink Pens. The ink in these pens has metallic and glitter. Since the ball-point pen works on the idea of a very smooth, even flow of ink, this is an interesting technology to achieve. 
    Even with the invent of the computer, there are times when you want to, or need to, write. Studies show that you retain information better when you right them down, even if you don’t revisit the notes. You retain better with handwritten notes than typed notes. 

    What do you think are other great pen, or writing related, inventions?
    What do you think is the next great, or not so great, invention related to the mighty pen?

  • On the VERGE of Sustainability

     VERGE 20 is on this week (starting October 26 2020). GreenBiz sponsor and coordinate this massive event. Anybody and any company that’s got anything to do with sustainability is here. Well, not exactly here since it is virtual this year… But you get the idea.

    Opening session was a wonderful start of the week. Even the singing was impressive. Really!  I said, “Oh, NO!”, when Shana Rappaport started in with a variation of Girl on Fire (Alycia Keyes). Hard song. Not exactly what you are used to at formal conferences. Turned out to be very, very cool. It also kind of elevated the urgency that many of us feel about dragging our feet in the (oil) sands on climate action: This World is on Fire! It also seemed apropos giving the historic fire year (in California, Colorado, etc.)

    VERGE is the ultimate sustainability forum each year with all the leading thought leaders and all the leading companies. Energy, food, transportation, circular economy and more. Great ideas for companies to save money and reduce carbon at the same time (like efficiencies, telework, and more). Many sponsor companies are enabling other organizations to move quickly toward (more) sustainability.

    We are looking for companies that aiming for negative carbon footprints (like Microsoft’s plan to remove all carbon-equivalent of the company’s lifetime of business). This would be moving to carbon neutral (renewable energy and such) and then offering to offset all the emissions from my family, my parents and my grandparents.

    One of the silver linings of the COVID pandemic was the clean air and restored nature in a few weeks human hibernation from industry. Even with the economy slowed down to, maybe 75% capacity (more like 50% in the US), the estimated carbon reduction was only about 8%. So, the argument is that the equivalent of the worst pain of the pandemic (hopefully without the pandemic and without most of the pain) is what we need to accomplish essentially every year for years.

    Just to be clear about the 8% reduction per year that we’re talking about: that’s a reduction in the increase. That’s not reducing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere, it is simply slowing down the massive rate that we are adding to it.

    Keynote sessions are free, so the price is right. Plus, you save on the hotel and flight!

    https://events.greenbiz.com/events/verge-conference/online/2020